It was a 2-1 SU day here yesterday with only Kyle Harrison failing to record the win vs. the lowly Rockies. Robbie Ray is -105 to record the win today in Colorado and is in the account, but let’s find some other edges today as that should be the first one in the account. It's 20-10 SU over the last 30 Colorado games.
These are my three favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, June 11.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 11
Liberatore o1.5 walks (+180)
Buehler o15.5 outs (+100)
Sears u4.5 strikeouts (-115)
Today's SP best bets
Blue Jays vs. Cardinals
The angle: The price, the setting, the matchup, and Liberatore's health
The move: Matthew Liberatore Over 1.5 walks allowed (+180 at DraftKings)
Walk props at these prices are hard to ignore and even more when a pitcher is struggling with "fatigue." St. Louis Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore has struggled over his last two turns, where he has allowed 12 runs over nine innings. He left his last start early because of “fatigue” but is making his regular start with an extra day of rest.
He’ll face one of the best offenses in baseball over the last 30 days in the Toronto Blue Jays, who don’t strike out and walk at a top-third rate.
It’s a hot day at Busch Stadium and fatigue could be a factor again. He has been a great control pitcher this year, but at this price, with some health concerns, and a tough matchup in the heat is in a good spot to get the peak of this market.
Rays vs. Red Sox
The angle: The box-score handicapping is misleading
The move: Walker Buehler Over 15.5 outs (+100 at DraftKings)
There’s a bit of a discount here with Walker Buehler after he got banged up vs. the Yankees in his last start and went just 67 pitches and six outs. However, in his start before that, he threw 106 pitches. That’s a long leash for a low out total at home vs. a Tampa Bay Rays offense that hits better at home in better conditions.
Before Buehler was tossed from the game on May 20 for arguing balls and strikes, he had gone over this number in three of four starts and touched 100 pitches in one of those games. His home ERA is more than four points shorter and he's allowed just 19 hits over 25+ home innings vs. 34 hits across 23 road innings. At even money and a decent leash, this is a good spot to buy low on the Boston Red Sox starter with your MLB picks.
Athletics vs. Angels
The angle: The matchup is too priced in for a struggling pitcher
The move: JP Sears Under 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
I tried making sense of his Over here as the projections liked it, but I just can’t. Backing A's lefty JP Sears has cost me money of late. He is not as good as he was early in the season and now with some more heat and better hitting conditions, he is struggling to be productive.
He has not hit five or more Ks in seven straight starts and is pitching to a 7.49 ERA over that stretch. The Los Angeles Angels strike out at a high rate but that is always priced in.
Sears struck out just four Angels batters four starts ago at home and gave up six runs on eight hits over 15 outs. He’s allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five games and a road start with winds blowing out is not going to help.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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