Shohei Ohtani Props and Odds Picks: It's Shotime

Can Shohei Ohtani replicate his MVP stats from years past? Plus, will the Japanese phenom be on a different team in 2024? Covers Senior Betting Analyst Andrew Caley breaks it all down in our Shohei Ohtani props and odds picks.

Last Updated: Mar 22, 2023 7:49 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Angels MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

What do people love more than home runs and strikeouts? Well, Shohei Ohtani is the one player in baseball that gives you both.

The Los Angeles Angels two-way star is a joy to watch. Since arriving in the MLB in 2018, Ohtani already has an MVP under his belt and has even finished fourth in Cy Young voting. 

Simply put, there isn’t a more fun player to follow in baseball. The only way to make following the Japanese superstar more fun?

With some season-long MLB futures bets, of course. 

Let's break down some of the Shohei Ohtani props out there, including what team Ohtani will be on in 2024...

Need more offseason insight? Check out our World Series odds, MLB stat leader odds, and pitcher stat leader odds.

Shohei Ohtani 2023 regular season ERA

Over 3.20 Under 3.20
-115 -120

Shohei Ohtani is clearly coming off his best season as a pitcher in the MLB and he was arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball last season. 

Ohtani finished the 2022 campaign with an impressive 2.33 ERA, and his 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings were tops in the American League. The Los Angeles Angels superstar definitely has the tools to put on a repeat performance.

For starters, Ohtani might have the best array of pitches of any pitcher in the league. He does most of his damage with his sweeping slider, four-seam fastball, and splitter. However, he also likes to throw in a sinker, cutter, and curveball for good measure.

He uses all those pitches to constantly change speeds and keep hitters off balance, and not only just rack up a crazy amount of strikeouts, but creates a ton of soft contact in the process. Ohtani also held opposing batters to a .203 batting average and a .574 OPS last season.

In Ohtani’s first two full seasons where he made regular starts, his ERA went from 3.18 in 2021 to 2.33 in 2022. He’s getting better every year and I don’t see the type of drastic dropoff required for him to have an ERA over 3.20 in 2023.

Shohei Ohtani 2023 regular season home runs

Over 34.5 Under 34.5
-115 -115

Last season was Ohtani’s best as a starter, but his numbers at the dish took a bit of a dip. During his MVP campaign in 2021, Ohtani swatted 46 dingers to go along with a .965 OPS. However, Ohtani ended last season with 34 home runs and a .875 OPS.

But was that by design?

If you look at Ohtani’s advanced numbers last season, you’ll see his average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and his hard hit percentage are all in line with his 2021 numbers. The one kryptonite for the 28-year-old was the slugger striking out more often in 2022. 

It looks like Ohtani addressed that by not swinging for the fences as much. His launch angle was down and his expected batting average went up, resulting in a much lower K%. 

All that said, he still squares up the baseball with power more than almost anyone in baseball, and still smacked 34 dingers last year. With his easy power to all fields and the consistent contact that he makes, 34 dingers feel like the floor for Ohtani’s home run total if he's able to stay healthy.

I’m betting we see more than 34 Ohtani bombs in 2023.

Shohei Ohtani 2023 regular season wins 

Over 13.5 Under 13.5
-155 +115

The Over/Under on regular season wins for Ohtani is an intriguing market because of the simple fact that his team is the Angels. Los Angeles has been a perennial underachiever for what feels like a decade now.

Runs can be hard to come by from guys not named Ohtani or Trout, but when Ohtani eventually hands the ball off, it’s usually to a sub-par bullpen. The Angels have ranked 24th and 18th when it comes to reliever ERA over the last two seasons, and L.A. didn’t do a whole lot to remedy that over the offseason. 

Wins are basically a very volatile stat and sometimes don’t tell the whole story. In 2021, Ohtani recorded just nine wins in 23 starts but notched 15 in 28 appearances last season.

And he’s not alone.

Here are some great pitchers who had 13 or fewer wins last season: Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, Shane McClanahan, and Kevin Gausman. 

Even one short stint on the injured list could drastically reduce your opportunities for wins. I think Ohtani will have a great year on the mound, but at plus money, I might lean toward the Under on his win total.

Where will Shohei Ohtani play Game 1 of the 2024 season

Team Odds
      The Field +250
Mariners New York Mets +550
Astros Los Angeles Dodgers +550
Blue Jays New York Yankees +600
Guardians San Diego Padres +700
Red Sox Philadelphia Phillies +700
Rangers San Francisco Giants +750
Orioles Texas Rangers +900
Astros Boston Red Sox +1,100

This is the most interesting market among these Ohtani props, as it was yet another wasted year for Ohtani and the Halos last season. 

It was so poor, that the Angels began to wonder if they would be better off moving their best assets. It even sounded like they were seriously considering offers for Ohtani at one point, as he will be a free agent after this season.

Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to get fair trade value for Ohtani. I mean, what is the going rate for a guy who is one of the top hitters and pitchers in baseball?

But with Ohtani set to hit the market, L.A. needs to do something.

The Angels know they will never find another player like Ohtani and I expect them to do whatever it takes and offer him some sort of record-setting contract in order to keep him in Halos’ threads.

If he does leave the Angels, I could see him joining a trio of NL West teams like the Dodgers, Padres, or Giants. However, I’m still siding with the field here at +250.

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