The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals in the final matchup of this four-game series at Progressive Field.
My Royals vs. Guardians predictions anticipate fireworks thanks to a pair of starters screaming statistical correction.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, September 11.
Royals vs Guardians prediction
Royals vs Guardians best bet: Over 7.5 (-120)
Now is the time to sell high on both starting pitchers. Despite solid surface-level numbers, underlying metrics suggest regression is imminent.
Kansas City Royals right-hander Stephen Kolek owns a 4.48 expected ERA (xERA) and a .273 expected batting average (xBA). He also ranks in the ninth percentile or lower in average exit velocity, strikeout rate, and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Cleveland Guardians righty Gavin Williams carries a 4.45 xERA and ranks below the league average in average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Neither lineup is particularly dangerous, which explains the low total despite the troubling analytics of each starter. That said, Kolek struggled against the Guardians in their lone meeting last season.
In that outing, Kolek surrendered four runs on four hits without recording a single out. The five Guardians hitters he faced, all of whom remain on the roster, combined for a .800 batting average and .800 slugging percentage.
Royals vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
If Kolek gets shelled again, these lines correlate well. Despite their inconsistency this year, Cleveland’s lineup is capable of putting up a crooked number from time to time.
That happened in the first game of this series, when the Guardians beat the Royals 10–2. And as Cleveland goes, so does Jose Ramirez. The third baseman is in the midst of another incredible year, batting .287/.361/.511 with 29 doubles and 28 home runs. He's cleared this line in each of the last two games of this series.
Royals vs Guardians SGP
- Over 7.5
- Guardians -1.5
- Ramirez Over 1.5 TB
Royals vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +115 | Cleveland -135
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-200) | Cleveland -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)
Royals vs Guardians trend
There have been eight or more total runs scored in three of Kolek’s past five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Guardians.
How to watch Royals vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Thursday, September 11, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Royals starting pitcher | Stephen Kolek (5-5, 3.88 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Gavin Williams (10-5, 3.17 ERA) |
Royals vs Guardians latest injuries
Royals vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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