The Cincinnati Reds are in the thick of the Wild Card playoff picture, starting the day 2.5 games back of the New York Mets — who hold the second Wild Card spot — after Friday's series-opening win.
Our Reds vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks have New York drawing even behind a raucous crowd gathered for David Wright Day on Saturday, July 19.
Reds vs Mets prediction
My Reds vs Mets best bet: Mets -1.5 (+120 at bet365)
The Cincinnati Reds drew first blood in this series with an 8-4 win in the Friday opener, but they are heavy road ‘dogs on Saturday due to the pitching matchup.
Cincy will start Nick Martinez, and while he’s 2-1 in July, he’s carrying a hefty 8.47 ERA, allowing 16 earned runs in 17 innings across his three starts.
The New York Mets haven’t seen much of him, but they’ve tagged him plenty, hitting .310 as a team with two homers and eight runs batted in.
Despite a loss to kick off the second-half, Citi Field has been good to New York in 2025, as they've gone 33-15 at home. That's tied for both the most wins and fewest losses in the National League.
It’s also been good to starting pitcher Clay Holmes, who will try to break into the win column in July after three starts without a decision, and a rough 5.28 ERA. Holmes is 4-1 with a sturdy 3.16 ERA at home in nine starts, holding opponents to a .193 average.
The Mets dropped just two series at home in the first half, and it’s only the third time they’ve lost back-to-back games at home this season.
I like them to find their way back into the win column Saturday. They’ve also won by at least two runs in four of their past five victories over the Reds, so we’ll add some extra juice by taking the spread.
Reds vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets -1.5
Juan Soto Over 0.5 home runs
Matt McLain Over 0.5 total bases
Juan Soto went deep in the loss to Cincy Friday, giving him three home runs in his last four games.
If he’s going to mash another deep ball, this is an ideal spot: he’s faced Martinez just once, and took him deep on a two-run shot.
Matt McLain picked up two hits on Friday, giving up back-to-back-to-back multi-hit games, and four straight games with at least two total bases.
Reds vs Mets odds
Reds vs Mets live odds
Reds vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +149 | New York -166
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 | New York -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Reds vs Mets trend
The Mets have hit the F5 team total Over in 19 of their last 25 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Mets.
How to watch Reds vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Saturday, 7-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNOH, SNY |
| Reds starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (7-9, 4.78 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (8-4, 3.31 ERA) |
Reds vs Mets latest injuries
Reds vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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