The Cleveland Guardians have enjoyed plenty of success at home this season, posting a 13-9 record to date.
My Reds vs. Guardians predictions see Cleveland picking up its fourth consecutive win on home soil Friday night.
Let's get into why with my MLB picks for May 15.
Who will win Reds vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-135)
Andrew Abbott's profile is littered with red flags. He ranks in the 28th percentile in xERA, the 15th percentile in xBA, and the 15th percentile in K%. He's allowing a lot of good contact and not missing many bats, which is a bad combination.
By comparison, Tanner Bibee sits 57th percentile in xERA, xBA, and K%. His xFIP and SIERA are also lower than his ERA, a signal better results are ahead.
Factor in the Cleveland Guardians are a Top-8 offense in average and wOBA vs. lefties and there is a lot working in their favor.
COVERS INTEL: Tanner Bibee has allowed an average of 1.9 earned runs over 20 home starts since the beginning of last season.
Reds vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 8.0 (-115)
Bibee has allowed five runs at home through five starts, and seven over his last eight dating back to last season. He is a nightmare to deal with in Cleveland.
His excellent play should continue against a Cincinnati Reds offense that ranks 26th in wOBA vs. righties on the road.
While Abbott is not pitching overly well, he should benefit from playing in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. He has allowed five runs through three road starts this season – including nearly six shutout innings against the high-powered Cubs.
- ML/RL bets: 17-7, +7.28 units
- Over/Under bets: 10-13-1, -4.11 units
Reds vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +115 | Cleveland -135
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-175) | Cleveland -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110)
Reds vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+9.35 units, 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Guardians.
How to watch Reds vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Friday, May 15, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Reds.TV, CleGuardians.TV |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (2-2, 4.47 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (0-5, 4.17 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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