The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox finish off their four-game set at Yankee Stadium this afternoon, where I’m taking the visitors to walk away with the win.
I’ll explain why Ranger Suarez will lead Boston to victory in my Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions and free MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 30.
Who will win Red Sox vs Yankees today: Red Sox (52%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
A mismatch on the mound gives the Boston Red Sox the edge today.
Ranger Suarez doesn’t have eye-popping numbers, but his underlying figures are impressive as he ranks in the 91st percentile in pitching run value.
New York Yankees starter Will Warren sits at the opposite end of the spectrum, ranking in the 4th percentile in pitching run value with a subpar 4.62 xERA (25th percentile), plus a 5.89 ERA over his last four outings.
Both teams have elite bullpens, so it’ll depend on which starter has the better showing, and Suarez is the easy pick.
Back Boston up to 55%.
COVERS INTEL: Since Aaron Judge left the lineup on May 31, the Yankees rank 28th in the majors in batting average (.224) and 26th in wOBA (.292) vs. left-handed pitching.
Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)
The line is a touch too high here with Suarez on the mound against an inconsistent Yankees offense that’s averaged just 3.88 runs over the last 16 games.
Boston (2.94) and New York (3.04) also own the top two bullpen ERAs in the majors.
The Under has cashed in four of the last six meetings between these clubs, and it’s 5-0-1 in their last six meetings at Yankee Stadium.
I’m playing the Under up to 56%.
Red Sox vs Yankees home run prediction: Willson Contreras (16%)
Willson Contreras has done damage vs. right-handed pitching this season with 19 dingers and a .513 SLG — placing him in the Top 25 in both categories across the majors.
His advanced profile is just as impressive, with the Red Sox slugger ranking in the top percentile in batting run value, 90th percentile in barrel rate, and 96th percentile in bat speed.
Nine of Contreras’ 23 home runs have come against the sinker, which Warren throws about 27% of the time.
Play this up to 18%.
- ML/RL bets: 8-8, -0.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 8-8, -0.40 units
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
Weather won’t be a major factor as Yankee Stadium will see temperatures in the mid-80s and light winds pushing out to left field this afternoon.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Red Sox 52% | Yankees 49%
- Run line: Red Sox -1.5 (39%) | Yankees +1.5 (62%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (46%) | Under 8.5 (54%)
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the team total Under in 33 of their last 46 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
How to watch Red Sox vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Sunday, Aug. 30, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | NESN, YES |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Ranger Suarez (5-3, 3.35 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (8-6, 4.39 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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