The Boston Red Sox have lost five out of their last seven games and will remain on the road to face the red-hot Tampa Bay Rays who, on the flip side, have taken five out of their last seven.
Tanner Houck will be tasked with quieting down a surging Tampa offense while talented righty Taj Bradley makes his third start of the year. My Red Sox vs. Rays predictions aren't banking on a pitcher's duel tonight.
Let's dive right in with our MLB picks on Monday, May 20.
Red Sox vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck has been nothing short of phenomenal this year with a 2.17 ERA through nine starts, and he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball at limiting severe damage on account of his strong walk, barrel, and ground-ball rates. The righty’s accomplished this by rolling up ground balls at an extremely high 56.2% rate, which has mitigated some of the risk let on by his high 44.4% hard-hit rate.
I have no massive qualms with Houck, but I wonder how he’ll fare in this matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays — who are taking walks at nearly a 10% clip over the past two weeks. The Rays have slashed a stunning .266/.348/.378 against ground-ballers this season, and they’ve also fared very well against guys who pitch to a lot of contact with a solid .240 batting average and .364 SLG.
I worry for Houck with the way the Rays have been hitting, and they’ve only looked stronger since returning a bunch of players from the injured list like Josh Lowe, Jonny DeLuca, and Jonathan Aranda.
On the flip side, I don’t think the 23-year-old Taj Bradley is fully developed and while the Red Sox have waffled at the plate all season long, they have at least posted a .163 isolated power. While their total output has decreased over the past two weeks, their ISO is up to .165. Sure, they are striking out a bunch while walking less, but Bradley has been a horrific pitcher when the ball has come back into play.
Bradley’s strikeout rate should continue to remain high, but as we saw last season when he posted a 5.59 ERA, without any weak contact or ground balls, it doesn’t make a huge difference. Boston has enough power to make something happen on Monday and all signs point to the Over.
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Red Sox vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Connor Wong 2+ total bases
Jonathan Aranda to record a hit
Expecting a high-scoring game, we’ll be skipping the pitching props here and heading right to two hitters who should succeed in this matchup.
The first is Connor Wong, who is hitting a blistering .345 this season and is slashing .370/.412/.457 over his last 12 games. He’s now firmly installed as this team’s three-hitter and everyday catcher, and this should be a very friendly spot for him considering he’s hitting .346 off “power pitchers” like Bradley this season, as classified by Baseball-Reference.
Then, I will take the discount on Jonathan Aranda to get a hit. Aranda is fresh off the IL but hit well enough in the spring that the Rays pegged him as the primary DH before the season started. He had issues catching up to heat on his rehab assignment, so I like him to hit Houck, whose average fastball velocity sits at 93.5 mph.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Rays odds
Red Sox vs Rays live odds
Red Sox vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: Boston -1.5 (+150) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Boston -115| Tampa Bay -105
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Red Sox vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- After a brief move toward the Red Sox, this line has flown toward Tampa Bay -120 as of this writing.
- The Red Sox have accounted for 54% of the bets and handle over at DraftKings to this point in the betting window.
- While the Over has taken on 69% of the tickets the Under has commanded 66% of the cash taken in on the total.
Red Sox vs Rays trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Rays
Red Sox vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 5-20-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, Bally Sports Sun |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (3-5, 2.17 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Taj Bradley (1-1, 2.45 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Rays latest injuries
Red Sox vs Rays weather
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