The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles wrap up a three-game set at Camden Yards on Wednesday.
My Red Sox vs. Orioles predictions are betting on a pitching duel in this clash with former NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes on the mound for Baltimore and Kutter Crawford toeing the rubber for Boston.
My MLB picks for tonight's AL East matchup explain why Corbin + Kutter = quiet first five innings.
Red Sox vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
First Five innings Under 4 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Three weeks ago, Boston Red Sox right-hander Kutter Crawford had a sizzling 1.75 ERA with an OBA of .206 after his first eight starts of the season. He's been shaky since, pitching to a 6.19 ERA with an OBA of .308 in his last three starts.
That said, he was lights out when he faced the Baltimore Orioles earlier this season, holding them to just two hits across five innings of shutout ball. It's also worth mentioning that while the Orioles have an OPS of .814 against southpaws, that number drops to .708 against righties like Crawford.
The O's traded for Corbin Burnes in the offseason, hoping to add an ace to their rotation. He has played up to those expectations, pitching to a 2.60 ERA through 11 starts with his ERA improving to 1.99 in seven starts at Camden Yards. He faced the Red Sox at Fenway back in April and held them to just one run on two hits in seven innings.
The Red Sox are eighth in the majors in OPS (.720) but their analytics are less impressive and they are just 23rd in expected batting average (.239). This is an inconsistent Boston lineup that is currently missing its leading home run hitter, Tyler O'Neill, and one of its best contact hitters, Masataka Yoshida.
Expect strong starts from both of these pitchers and take the Under on the first five innings total.
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Red Sox vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
First five Under 4.5
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 hits
Jordan Westburg Over 0.5 hits
While the SGP option at bet365 doesn't give us 4 on the first five total, we can push that number up to 4.5 and parlay it with a few hit props to turn a nice profit.
Rafael Devers started the season in a slump but he's been on fire over the last month, slashing .331/.403/.619 over his last 30 games and going 4-for-5 at the dish last night. The two-time Silver Slugger winner also has the platoon advantage against Burnes and has a history of hitting the ball well at Camden Yards.
Jordan Westburg is having a breakout season, batting .291 overall and .350 at home. He ranks in the top 12th percentile in hard-hit rate and exit velocity while his expected batting average of .304 is a strong indication of success moving forward. He also has a reverse platoon split and is one of the few Orioles who hit better against righties, batting .312.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Orioles odds
Red Sox vs Orioles live odds
Red Sox vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-150) | Baltimore -1.5 (+125)
- Moneyline: Boston +155 | Baltimore -185
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Red Sox vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- With both starters posting impressive numbers this season, early money has come in on the Under dropping the total to 7.5.
- Despite losing last night, the Orioles have the fourth-best record in the majors at 34-19.
- The Red Sox are 28-27 and have played well on the road going 17-12.
- Despite Crawford's impressive numbers, the Red Sox are just 2-7 in his last nine starts.
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Red Sox vs Orioles trend
The Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Orioles
Red Sox vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, MASN |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Kutter Crawford (2-2, 2.17 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Corbin Burnes (4-2, 2.56 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Orioles latest injuries
Red Sox vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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