Red Sox vs Mariners Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pivetta Gets Starter Status Back

The Red Sox and Mariners are both making some strong pushes toward October, and they’re on a collision course this week in Seattle.

With Nick Pivetta trending in the right direction, might Boston have a chance here on the road? Read our MLB betting picks below to find out. 

Red Sox vs Mariners odds

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account

Red Sox vs Mariners predictions

We’ve got an interesting case here in Nick Pivetta, who really struggled earlier this year as a starting pitcher and became virtually unhittable once he moved over to the bullpen as a long man. The numbers would indicate he’s a very good pitcher, but there are no metrics to measure the demons he’s clearly had when starting the game.

Still, I’m a believer here in Pivetta. His strikeout rate is a beastly 29.4%, and while his walk rate is also high, the Seattle Mariners are a very, very undisciplined team at the dish.

They strike out the second most in the major leagues and own a putrid 27.9% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. While they’ve been hitting home runs left and right, a team that's striking out this much is no match for a guy who misses bats like Pivetta.

On the other side of this one, the Boston Red Sox have been improving ever so slightly in the strikeout department and get a guy in George Kirby who has been having a down year in that department. His strikeout rate is just 0.5 points ahead of the league average, and the Sox are heating up right now with an average better than .260 in the last two weeks.

I think Boston should be favored here against Kirby, who's a pitcher I simply do not like. He needs strikeouts to mask his issues with quality contact and he shouldn’t get them here.

My best bet: Red Sox moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)

Red Sox vs Mariners same-game parlay

Red Sox ML (+110)

Nick Pivetta to record 7+ strikeouts (-102)

Masataka Yoshida to record a hit (-260)

+320 at FanDuel

Pivetta should really take care of business against a team that's been so incredibly bad at the plate, so he and the Sox will get our parlay started here.

I like him to get to seven strikeouts, and helping matters is the fact that he’s gone for 33 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. He’s averaged nine strikeouts in his previous three outings which have lasted 4+ innings. Since we don’t have a wealth of data from his starts that’s recent and relevant, we can base our pick on that.

Then, I like Yoshida to record yet another hit. While he’s yet to record one in his last four games, we can take solace in the fact that he’s a ground ball hitter taking on a ground ball pitcher in Kirby. He's also left-handed, and lefties are .275 off of Kirby this year. For comparison’s sake, righties are hitting .235. I think Yoshida is our man if we need a player to pick up a hit.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Red Sox vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Under should be a good play if you’re fearful of going against the Mariners and Kirby at home.

While Seattle is a team that's produced some major power numbers over the last two weeks, it's also a club that has struck out in a ton of plate appearances. Pivetta has had issues allowing homers this year but with his strikeout numbers against a team this undisciplined, I find it hard to believe he'll fold hard enough for the Over to come into play.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Red Sox have really beaten teams to death with singles all year long. They’ve been a little bit better in the power department of late, but in a park not very friendly to home run hitters, it’s also a stretch to say the Sox should land a ton of huge blows against Kirby.

I’m still firmly in the camp that you back this Boston offense and fade Kirby, but objectively speaking, neither of these pitchers should let things get too far out of hand.

Trend to know

The Red Sox have gone Under the full-game total in 30 of their last 51 games (+8.15 units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Mariners

Red Sox vs Mariners game info

Starting pitchers

Nick Pivetta (7-5, 4.11 ERA): Pivetta will be making his first start since May 16, when he was demoted to the bullpen following a middling start against the Mariners. He owns a 1.29 ERA in 21 innings this month and has done all he can to earn his spot back in the rotation.

George Kirby (9-8, 3.49 ERA): Kirby owned a 24.5% strikeout rate a year ago in what was an exciting rookie campaign, but his strikeouts have come down this year and that’s caused his ERA to rise gradually. He’s still one of the best starters in baseball at limiting walks and owns a very solid 3.89 xERA.

Latest injuries

Weather

Pages related to this topic