The Toronto Blue Jays will resume their series with the first-place Boston Red Sox at Sahlen Field on Wednesday night after Tuesday's contest was postponed.
After a 13-4 pounding in the series opener, Toronto will turn to its best arm, southpaw Robbie Ray, while Boston counters with righty Garrett Richards. Home field and the starting pitching discrepancy have made the Blue Jays massive favorites for this AL East clash.
Find out who we like in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on July 21.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
• Location: Sahlen Field, Buffalo, NY
• Date: Wednesday, July 21, 2021
• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Rogers Sportsnet, NESN
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline saw significant movement at TwinSpires Sportsbook, which opened Toronto -170 and is out to -215 at 4:45 p.m. ET today. However, the action isn't that overwhelming, with 55 percent of bets and 69 percent of money on the Blue Jays. The total opened at 10.5 (Over -115) and is now 10.5 (Over -120), with ticket count 4/1 and money beyond 5/1 on the Over. "We'll be rooting for the Under here," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Blue Jays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA): While Richards completed the first half of the season with two decent starts before the All-Star break, he's been super inconsistent and hasn't completed six innings since June 1. He surrendered 11 hits and four runs the last time he faced the Blue Jays, who also spanked him for four runs back in April in a game he issued a season-high six walks. Richards takes a 1.68 WHIP into the outing, which is the second-worst mark among pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings.
Robbie Ray (8-4, 2.93 ERA): Ray has been dynamite in July, posting a 0.87 ERA over 20 2-3 frames, working into the seventh inning in all three of his starts. He has punched out 25 while surrendering five walks over that stretch and hasn't allowed a run in his last two outings. That has helped him lower his ERA to under 3.00 for the first time since April. The lefty punched out 10 batters the last time he faced Boston, just over a month ago.
Weather
The temperature is expected to be in the low-70s for first pitch, with the wind blowing west with gusts of 11 mph. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Red Sox: Christian Vazquez C (Questionable), Christian Arroyo 3B (Out), Marwin Gonzalez 3B (Out), Ryan Brasier RP (Out).
Blue Jays: Tyler Chatwood RP (Out), Anthony Castro RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Blue Jays are 4-1 in Ray's last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays.
Runline pick
The Blue Jays were embarrassed in Monday's series opener, with the Red Sox demolishing starter Ross Stripling and then Anthony Kay for 11 runs over the first two innings en route to the lopsided victory. This is the type of game where the Blue Jays can return the favor.
Ray has, surprisingly, been one of the best starters in the American League this season and without question is Toronto's best arm. While it's highly unlikely he will win the award, he offers incredible value to capture the AL Cy Young at +10,000 odds. The fact that statement can even be made is incredible — and a testament to the turnaround Ray has made this season.
The biggest thing behind his success is improved control, as the typically wild lefty has the lowest walk rate of his career, which has helped him avoid major damage despite struggling with the long ball. With Ray holding batters to a .213 average, not enough baserunners have been getting on for those home runs (1.68 HR/9 — the third-highest mark among qualified starters) to drive up his ERA, which stands at a stellar 2.93.
Ray throws gas and has a devastating slider, allowing him to consistently post elite strikeout rates and his newfound control of the zone has made him a difficult assignment for any lineup. The BoSox can swing it, but Ray has offered no reason to fade him, with Toronto winning four of his last five starts and the left-hander allowing more than three runs in just two of 18 outings.
This is also a terrible spot for Richards, and the hard-hitting Blue Jays have already hurt him twice this season. While we love the Blue Jays for this matchup, they are such heavy favorites (-200 odds at a number of books) that they aren't playable on the moneyline. Take them on the runline instead.
PREDICTION: Toronto -1.5 (-104)
Over/Under pick
Even in a game that features Ray, who is one of only five AL starters with a sub-3.00 ERA, we're getting another double-digit total. That speaks to how strong these offenses are and how mediocre — at best — Richards is.
Toronto ranks first in MLB in OPS while Boston is fourth. The clubs are the MLB leaders in slugging and both are inside the Top 5 in batting average. The Blue Jays rank first in the AL in homers with Boston not far behind, sitting seventh in the majors, plus they are two of only five teams averaging more than 5.0 runs per game.
A combined seven players from their lineups made the All-Star Game, highlighted by MVP contenders Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. These are elite lineups that will punish pitchers and capitalize on mistakes. While we expect Toronto to do just that to Richards, who has allowed four-plus runs in seven of 18 starts, we wouldn't bank on the Red Sox doing the same to Ray.
Still, all it will take tonight is a few runs against Ray to push this total past the Over. Sahlen Field is a hitter's park and Ray, who faces a home run-hitting team, has allowed a bomb in all but four outings this year. The Red Sox tagged him for one the last time they saw him in June and pushed three runs across the board and we can see a similar situation unfolding tonight.
We're confident that will be enough to get us into double-digit territory as a result of what Toronto does to Richards, who is destined for a short outing before turning the ball over to a collection of bullpen arms that will be forced to contain the power-hitting Blue Jays.
PREDICTION: Over 10.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays betting card
- Toronto -1.5 (-104)
- Over 10.5 (-110)
Picks made on 7/21/2021 at 10:10 a.m. ET
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