The Toronto Blue Jays will look to complete the sweep of the Boston Red Sox when the clubs finish off their three-game series this afternoon at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays are decent-sized favorites in the MLB odds to do so.
Hyun-Jin Ryu will make just his ninth start of the season for Toronto since returning to the lineup in August following Tommy John surgery, but should give the Jays the edge over Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta, who’s been poor in recent outings.
Can Toronto pick up another crucial win in its race for an AL Wild Card spot? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs Blue Jays on Sunday, September 17.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
It’s been a tight series so far, with the Blue Jays picking up a 3-0 win in Friday’s opener and then battling to a 4-3 win in the 13th inning on Saturday. A key theme in both of those victories has been excellent performances from Toronto’s starters, and it seems like we could see another strong showing from Hyun-Jin Ryu this afternoon.
The southpaw wasn’t great in his last start against the Rangers on September 12, allowing five hits and three earned runs over six innings, but he’s been generally consistent since returning to the team. Ryu has held opponents to two earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts while allowing no earned runs in three of those games.
The Red Sox offense doesn’t look very threatening right now either, averaging a lowly 2.67 runs per game over their last six contests — something that Ryu should benefit from.
Nick Pivetta has bounced between the starting rotation and bullpen for Boston, giving up a combined 11 hits and six earned runs across his last two starts — a combined 10 innings of work. The right-hander has allowed at least three earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts going back to April, so I like Ryu’s chances to give the Jays a lead through the first five innings of this contest.
My best bet: Blue Jays F5 moneyline (-138 at SIA)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Most books won't let you add first five innings moneylines to SGPs, but our best bet will nevertheless shape each leg in this play.
We’ll start by taking the Under on 3.5 runs for the Red Sox. That’s certainly a low number, but when you consider that Boston has scored more than three runs in just twice of its last six outings, you can see the appeal.
Ryu has also been pretty solid so barring an unforeseen meltdown from the Jays starter, I see Boston’s struggles continuing.
Ryu has thrown at least five Ks in two straight starts and four of his last five outings. He’s by no means a strikeout pitcher, averaging about 0.89 Ks per inning pitched over his career, but five isn’t a lot to ask if he pitches through the fifth or sixth inning again.
Lastly, we’ll look for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to notch another RBI. Vladdy has been Toronto’s driving force over the last week, leading the team in hits (six), home runs (three), RBI (six), and total bases (15). Guerrero Jr. recorded all six of his RBI over the last three games and has four against Boston so far in this series.
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Toronto comes into this one as the home favorite at -141 on the moneyline, and I’m going to roll with the oddsmakers today, taking the Jays to complete the sweep.
Pivetta has struggled against the Blue Jays this year, posting a 4.50 ERA over vs. Toronto with 14 hits, four homers, and seven earned runs over 14 innings.
The Jays last saw Pivetta on August 5, when he allowed six hits and three earned runs over four innings out of the pen. The Red Sox starter has not inspired a ton of confidence of late, and we know he likely won’t get much run support.
Today’s total comes in at 8.5 runs, and the Under looks like the easy play with how these clubs are trending. Both clubs have scored just 16 runs over the past week, tied with the Angels and Cardinals for the worst mark in the majors.
The Under has cashed in five of Boston’s last six games, primarily due to their lackluster offense. Meanwhile, the clubs have also cashed the Under in four of their last five meetings this season.
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Toronto is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
|Location:||Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON|
|Date:||Sunday, September 17, 2023|
|First pitch:||1:37 p.m. ET|
Nick Pivetta (9-9, 4.56 ERA): Pivetta wasn’t great against the Yankees in his last start on September 12, giving up four hits and three earned runs over 5 1/3 innings, but it was his longest outing since late July. The right-hander has recorded just one win in his last five starts.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-3, 2.93 ERA): Ryu is still easing his way back into form following Tommy John surgery as the left-hander has yet to throw more than 86 pitches in a start this year, though he did set a new season high with six innings pitched last time out. The southpaw has struggled to keep the ball in the park, giving up five homers over his last four outings.
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