Rays vs Rangers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Pitchers Keep Runs to a Minimum

Fans will get to enjoy a potential ALCS preview this week, as the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Texas Rangers for a three-game series beginning on Monday night.

Tampa Bay (60-36) owns the best record in the American League but has been struggling a bit as of late, losing eight of its last 11 games. Texas (55-39) leads the AL West, has the best run differential in the majors, and is coming off a three-game sweep of the Guardians.

The series starts Monday night with a great pitching matchup between Shane McClanahan and Dane Dunning. We’ll break down what this means for tonight’s matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Rangers on July 17.

Rays vs Rangers odds

Rays vs Rangers predictions

Shane McClanahan came out of the gate as one of the best young pitchers in the league when he debuted with Tampa Bay in 2021. Since then, the lefty has only gotten better.

For the second straight year, McClanahan is a contender for the Cy Young Award, and even if he can’t quite win it this season, it’s starting to seem inevitable that he’ll be adding to his trophy case at some point.

McClanahan currently leads the AL in ERA (2.53) and wins (11), while holding opponents to a 1.167 WHIP. While he went through two rough starts right before the All-Star break due to back tightness, he's now ready to return and should be at full strength given his nearly three weeks of rest.

Rangers starter Dane Dunning isn’t nearly as heralded as McClanahan but has been excellent for Texas in 2023. Initially used out of the bullpen, Texas moved Dunning to the rotation in May, and he has generally rewarded them with solid starts.

Dunning has thrown to a 3.14 ERA as a starter and can go deep enough into games to at least keep that position through the rest of the regular season.

Tonight’s game features two of the top offenses in the majors, with the Rangers leading the league at 5.86 runs scored per game, but there’s no guarantee that either lineup will thrive when facing off against capable pitching. And even if one of these teams manages to break through, it’s hard to imagine two-way traffic resulting in a slugfest tonight.

Over their last nine games, the Rays are averaging just 3.55 runs per game. Even the Rangers have slowed down a bit, with their output dropping to just five runs per game in their last eight contests — and that’s without facing a pitcher the caliber of McClanahan over that span.

Despite the matchup, sportsbooks saw tonight’s game and set a reasonably high total of 8.5. Bettors then jumped on the party, moving the Over/Under up to a flat 9. In my opinion, that number shows a shocking lack of respect for McClanahan and Dunning, who should be able to keep these lineups in check. I’m taking the Under tonight.

My best bet: Under 9 (-115 at Caesars)

Rays vs Rangers same-game parlay

Under 9.5 (-160)

Dane Dunning to record 4+ strikeouts (-260)

Shane McLanahan to record 6+ strikeouts (-110)

+245 at DraftKings

For my same-game parlay tonight, I’m going to bank on both pitchers getting the job done in a big game for these teams. That starts by playing into my best bet by anchoring this SGP with the Under at 9.5 runs.

Then, we’ll take strikeout props on both starting pitchers. We’ll be a little more careful with Dunning, who doesn’t typically go as deep into games, and bet on the Texas starter to get at least four strikeouts. We can be a bit more aggressive when it comes to McClanahan’s prop, expecting him to strike out at least six Rangers batters over the course of the night.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rays opened tonight’s game as about a -125 favorite. That number has moved further in their direction at many books, but the consensus moneyline is still sitting at around Tampa Bay -125. You can find numbers as good as -119 on the Rays, or +110 on the Rangers.

These two teams have been great on the field in 2023, and not surprisingly, that has translated into wins for bettors as well. Tampa Bay is up over 10 units on the moneyline this year, while the Rangers are up more than seven units for the season.

In tonight’s game, I’m inclined to lean toward taking the Rays. While McClanahan did struggle a bit just before the All-Star break, he seemed to be suffering from back tightness at the time.

Tampa Bay could afford to give him enough time off to recover, and he should be back to his old self for tonight’s game. That should be enough to give Tampa Bay a clear edge.

The Over/Under opened at 8.5 runs for tonight’s game. Some sites have kept the total at that number, but most have gone up to 9 runs flat, with a little juice on the Under in exchange for the extra half-run.

The lineups for these teams have typically powered them above the number this season. The Over is 52-40 in Tampa Bay games, while it is also 48-37 when the Rangers have played in 2023.

That said, I’m playing the Under tonight. These teams have not been hitting at their season-long rates as of late, and now both lineups will have to deal with capable pitchers who can keep the game under control.

As I said in my best bet section above, it’s likely that both teams will have to do significant damage against the opposing starter to hit the Over, and I just don’t see that happening with this much talent on the mound. The Under is the play in tonight’s game.

Trend to know

The Under is 5-2 in Tampa Bay’s last seven games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Rangers

Rays vs Rangers game info

Starting pitchers

Shane McLanahan (11-1, 2.53 ERA): McClanahan has firmly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League, and through mid-June, it looked as though the 26-year-old was taking his game to a whole new level in 2023. His numbers have come back to reality a bit over his last two starts, but that seems to be at least in part due to back problems. He last went just three innings against the Mariners on June 30 and is making his return from that minor injury concern tonight.  

Dane Dunning (8-2, 2.84 ERA): Almost exclusively a starter in his first three MLB seasons, the Rangers moved Dunning to the bullpen to start the 2023 campaign. After dominating in relief, Dunning regained a starting role in May, and he has been performing well since his return to the rotation, putting up a 3.14 ERA and 1.214 WHIP as a starter. He last pitched on July 9, allowing four runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings to the Nationals.

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