The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight consecutive games yet are not favored against a sub .500 Houston team.
My Rays vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks believe that is for good reason, and see value in backing the home side.
Who will win Rays vs Astros today: Houston Astros (-110)
Nick Martinez owns an unfathomably low 18.9% ground ball rate over the last 30 days. He can’t keep the ball on the ground, and he’s leaking oil as a result.
Martinez conceded at least three earned runs in four of five starts during that stretch.
The Houston Astros are equipped to exploit his struggles, ranking seventh in FB% and tied for 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching since June 1.
If Spencer Arrighetti stabilizes as he should (he owns a 9 ERA the past month despite a 3.8 xFIP), the Astros should win.
Back Houston to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Nick Martinez ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA, indicating he has not pitched nearly as well as his 2.66 ERA suggests.
Rays vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)
The Tampa Bay Rays have a potent offense but it lacks power, particularly on the road. No team has posted a lower ISO, or hit fewer home runs, in away games when facing right-handed pitching.
Arrighetti has struggled with the long ball, allowing three homers in back-to-back games. This is a spot where he should be able to limit power, as he’s done effectively for the majority of the season.
Martinez has allowed only 0.87 homers per nine innings in away games while walking just 4.2% of batters. Those outputs put a ceiling on opposing offenses.
Bet to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 47-38, -1.45 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-36-4, +4.69 units
Rays vs Astros weather
The Houston Astros play in a rarely opened dome so hot temperatures should have little to no impact on this game.
Rays vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Rays -110 | Astros -110
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)
Rays vs Astros trend
Houston has hit the moneyline in 24 of the last 40 games (+7.90 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros.
How to watch Rays vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV |
| Rays starting pitcher | Nick Martinez (7-2, 2.66 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 4.00 ERA) |
Rays vs Astros latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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