Team Italy has been the surprise of the World Baseball Classic.
The Italians upset Team USA in pool play, putting the Americans' chance of advancement at risk before Italy's own rout of Mexico helped keep Team USA alive on a tiebreaker.
The Italians are one of the three classic teams remaining unbeaten. That might end, however, against a Puerto Rican team that has the potential to shut them down.
My Puerto Rico vs. Italy predictions and World Baseball Classic best bets have Puerto Rico advancing to the semis.
Puerto Rico vs Italy prediction
Puerto Rico vs Italy best bet: Puerto Rico -1.5 (+140 at DraftKings)
Italy has not scored fewer than seven runs in its four WBC games. Puerto Rico has allowed a total of six in its four games. Team P.R. has a WBC-low 1.22 ERA so far.
The Puerto Ricans are starting 10-year MLB veteran Seth Lugo, who is 1-0 in the WBC and 1-0 in two pre-WBC spring games with a strikeout per inning. He should help keep a Team Italy order that has hit 12 home runs in check.
Puerto Rico has been to the knockout round of all six WBCs. Italy is making its first trip.
Puerto Rico vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Puerto Rico -1.5 runs
Under 8.5 runs scored
Seth Lugo 5+ strikeouts
Team Puerto Rico has not had a WBC game with more than seven total runs scored and is averaging a run total of 5.5 in its games. Including two MLB exhibition games against the Twins and Red Sox, Puerto Rico has averaged 6.5 runs per game in six games.
Team Italy has been tearing it up, but has been slowed somewhat when facing pitchers with MLB experience. They strike out 9.75 times per 9 innings compared to 6.75 and score nearly a full earned run less, with five and a half fewer hits.
Lugo had four innings of three-hit ball in the WBC opener against Colombia. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he should be able to hit five against an Italian team making its first appearance in the knockout stage.
Heliot Ramos star player prop
Heliot Ramos best bet: Anytime home run (+550 at DraftKings)
Heliot Ramos has 43 home runs over the last two seasons. He had a 1.836 OPS in six pre-WBC spring games but has struggled in the classic so far.
Facing Italian starter Sam Aldegheri, who allowed 2.0 home runs per nine innings for the Angels last year, should help light a fire.
Puerto Rico vs Italy opening odds
- Moneyline: Puerto Rico -110 | Italy -115
- Run line: Puerto Rico -1.5 (+140) | Italy +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
How to watch Puerto Rico vs Italy and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Saturday, March 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Puerto Rico starting pitcher | Seth Lugo |
| Italy starting pitcher | Samuel Aldegheri |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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