Today’s MLB Prop Bets, Picks and Predictions: Astros Blast MadBum

It's the stretch run of the MLB regular season, and prop bet selection is about to get less plentiful when the field is thinned. We're taking full advantage with some great wagers every day, as the Astros' bats headline today's MLB prop picks.

Last Updated: Sep 17, 2021 10:03 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Jose Altuve Houston Astros MLB prop picks
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The MLB betting board has a full slate of 15 games this Friday which means thousands of MLB prop and side bets to consider! 

Today, we back a Mets team starting to show improvement at the plate, fade a Reds squad that's been declining at the dish, and put our money on the Astros, who have been the most consistent hitting team in the majors for the last several years.

Here are our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Friday, September 17.            

Today’s MLB props and picks

Walker Buehler Earned Runs Under 2.5 (best odds: -143 at BetMGM)

The Cincinnati Reds were surprisingly one of the major league's top offensive teams for the first half of the season, but have really hit the wall lately. Over the last 30 days, the Reds rank 27th in the majors with an OPS of .680 while plating just 3.69 runs per game. 

It won't get any easier for them to generate offense today as they host the Los Angeles Dodgers and stud starter Walker Buehler. Buehler had an uncharacteristic poor start two weeks ago when he surrendered six runs against the Giants but he bounced back with a gem against the Padres last Saturday, limiting them to a pair of runs across seven innings. 

The Dodgers right-hander has gotten better every season since he entered the bigs and he is an outstanding 14-3 with a 2.32 ERA and a WHIP of 0.95 in 29 starts this year. He's also a model of consistency and has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his previous 12 starts. With the Reds struggling at the plate, take the Under 2.5 on Walker's runs allowed. 

Covers MLB betting analysis

New York Mets Team Hits Over 6.5 (best odds: -125 at Bet365)

The Philadelphia Phillies send Cy Young candidate Zack Wheeler to the mound for tonight's game against the Mets but there's plenty of reason to think that oddsmakers might be underestimating New York's current form at the plate. 

Wheeler has been dealing this season, but he had a rough August where he pitched to a 4.81 ERA across six starts. He also hasn't exactly been unhittable on the road this season, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with an opponent batting average of .243 through 76 2-3 innings. 

There's also a big drop-off after Wheeler, with the Phillies bullpen ranking 25th in the majors in ERA (4.74) and OBA (.251).

The Mets have struggled at the dish for much of the year but have really hit their stride lately thanks in large part to midseason acquisition Javier Baez. Baez is slashing .400/.484/.745 in September and the Mets have an impressive OPS of .803 while averaging 9.07 hits per game. Take the Over on their low team total hits number of 6.5. 

Houston Team Total Over 5.5 (best odds: +110 at Bet365)

We backed the Over on Houston's team total of 5.5 last night and the Astros cashed it — in the fourth inning alone, as they went on to win 12-1. We're backing that bet again tonight in a matchup that's simply too tantalizing to ignore. 

The Astros have a star-studded lineup that leads the majors in scoring with 5.35 runs per game while ranking second in OPS at .785. They've been even better lately, averaging a whopping 7.1 runs per game over their last 10 contests. 

Tonight, the 'Stros get to play at their hitter-friendly home field while facing off against a left-handed starter, and they have been mashing against southpaws for years.

That starter happens to be former World Series MVP Madison Bumgarner, whose play has really fallen off a cliff. Bumgarner has a brutal 5.03 ERA in 12 starts on the road this season and he's been even worse over the last few weeks. The lefty has allowed at least four runs in each of his last four starts, pitching to a 7.43 ERA and surrendering seven homers in 23 innings over that span. And three of those starts came against the Mariners and Pirates.   

It doesn't get any better for the D-Backs after MadBum, with their bullpen ranking last in the majors in both WHIP (1.53) and OVA (.279). If Arizona's pitchers are getting rocked in Seattle and Pittsburgh, I can't even imagine what the Astros will do to them in Houston. 

MLB betting card for September 17

  • Walker Buehler Earned Runs Under 2.5 (-143 at BetMGM)
  • NY Mets Team Hits Over 6.5 (-125 at Bet365)
  • Houston Team Total Over 5.5 (+110 at Bet365)

Picks made on 9/17/2021 at 9:20 a.m. ET

MLB parlays

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