It's September and I’m digging into every baseball market, hunting for value as the summer days leave us. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding player prop gems.
Today, I’m betting on both pitchers in the afternoon game and fading a third pitcher eventually heading to Cooperstown. Let's cash!
MLB props for September 1
Picks made on 9/01/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Clayton Kershaw will be making his first start after missing nearly a month with lower back pain. It will be a tough spot vs. the Mets in a playoff atmosphere in Citi Field.
The southpaw threw a 70-pitch simulated game on the weekend, which was his first stint vs. live batters. He has also dealt with multiple back injuries over his career so I’d expect Dave Roberts to be more than careful with Kershaw who the Dodgers would love to have in October, especially with all the SP injuries.
Sim game time for Clayton Kershaw in Miami #Dodgers pic.twitter.com/5Y3SuBgfNO— Bill Plunkett (@billplunkettocr) August 27, 2022
THE BAT has him projected for just 62 pitches and considering he threw 71 pitches in his last return to the lineup back in June following a month off, Kershaw’s leash will be short tonight.
The Dodgers bullpen is also fully available after Tyler Anderson went deep yesterday and LA played from behind.
FanDuel is the only book opening early markets for Kershaw and I’m taking advantage of that as they have his strikeouts at 4.5 and paying -142 to the Under. With such a short leash and tough opponent, this is going to be a hard Over to hit if he throws just 65 to 70 pitches.
Clayton Kershaw Prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-142 at FanDuel)
Seattle’s Logan Gilbert has seen the Jays, Yankees, Padres, and Guardians seven times over his last 10 starts and has recorded over 15 outs in six of those seven matches. The Seattle starter owns a solid 3.49 ERA and has completed six innings in 14 of his 26 starts.
He was hit by a line drive two starts ago, which is why his pitch count has been a little short over his last two turns, but he will get a full leash today and faces the league’s worst offense that will likely be even weaker with an afternoon lineup.
Helping Gilbert get deep has been his improved command of late. He hasn’t allowed a free pass in over two straight starts and has just 14 walks over his last 55 innings, which is an improvement on his season numbers.
The Tigers see the fourth fewest pitches per plate appearance in baseball at 3.80 and swing and miss at the third-highest rate. Detroit also ranks dead last in slugging percentage and wRC+. This is an easy lineup to navigate and Gilbert will flirt with 18 outs making his 15.5 total outs market a big play for me.
THE BAT projects the Seattle pitcher for 102 pitches and over 19 outs. If the outs is too juicy for you, feel free to hit the Over 4.5 strikeouts.
Logan Gilbert Prop: Over 15.5 outs recorded (-120 at BetMGM)
The forgotten Eduardo
Sticking with the early game, Eduardo Rodriguez might be a forgotten player in the prop world. The big Detroit free-agent acquisition has made just two starts since returning from the restricted list but the left-hander should be working his way back to a full array of pitches.
He’s thrown 78 pitches in back-to-back starts and THE BAT has him projected for over 90 pitches today at Comerica Park, which projects as one of the best HR-suppressing parks on a small Thursday slate.
Rodriguez is a better than a K/9 pitcher over his career and with a strikeout prop of just 3.5 today, this play could win after three or four innings from the starter. He struck out five batters over five innings in his return from injury two starts ago and could get a lighter Seattle lineup with the matinee.
The Mariners also sit in the Top 12 in K% vs. left-handed pitchers on the season.
With the rust gone, I’m liking Rodriguez to get in his 15-17 outs, which would make the Over 3.5 punchouts a breeze. Some books are already on the 4.5.
Eduardo Rodriguez Prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-140 at BetMGM)
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