Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Rodon Descends on L.A. With Strikeout Pitch in Tow

Carlos Rodon has a tough assignment tonight, facing the Los Angeles Dodgers and their fearsome lineup, but we think he's up to the task of surpassing his strikeouts prop of 6.5. He's one of our three favorite prop plays on a light MLB schedule.

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at
Jason Wilson • Publishing Editor
Jul 21, 2022 • 10:19 ET • 4 min read

Baseball is back with a short slate to kick off the second half of the season on Thursday. With only six games on the docket — including two doubleheaders — we're canvassing the full day, so get your early picks in as soon as possible with the Texas Rangers playing the Miami Marlins at 1:10 p.m. ET.

We're targeting a hot-hitting Corey Seager in that matchup before shifting to focus on rookie Tigers outfielder Riley Greene against a soft-tossing spot starter for the A's. Rounding out our night, we're looking at Carlos Rodon in the nightcap.

Here are our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Thursday, July 21.

MLB props for July 21

Picks made on 7/21/2022 at 10:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Come and Seager

Editor's note: This pick was made prior to Seager being announced out for today's game vs. the Marlins. 

Fresh off his appearance in the Home Run Derby — where he only lost early because he ran into the buzzsaw that is Julio Rodriguez in the opening round — Texas Rangers shortstop Corey Seager is looking to continue his hot play at the plate against the Miami Marlins and right-hander Pablo Lopez.

Heading into the All-Star break, Seager was one of baseball's hottest hitters, batting .355 with seven home runs across 16 games in July. And while he's hitting under .250 vs. right-handed pitchers on the season, he's turned that around to go 16-for-46 against righties this month. While that's a small sample size, so too were the preceding three months when compared to a career of solid results (a career batting average of .297 against RHP).

Lopez is having a fine season for the Marlins (2.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) but isn't missing as many bats as he did a year ago. He's more in line with his career norms, suggesting last season's strikeout percentage of 27.5 was the outlier. Opponents are just hitting .209 against Lopez, but that can at least partially be chalked up to a career-low .256 BABIP. His expected ERA is nearly a full run higher at 3.83.

Seager is riding a 10-game hitting streak into this afternoon's clash and he's cleared his 1.5 total bases prop in 11 of his last 13 games. At plus money, we're banking on Seager to perform more closely to his career numbers than his uncharacteristic scuffles to open the season.

Corey Seager Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)

Greene light means go

The Detroit Tigers are not good but rookie Riley Greene has appeared as one of the team's lone bright spots since debuting on June 18. The .254 batting average isn't eye-popping but his .344 on-base percentage is quite encouraging when held up alongside it.

The Tigers have installed Greene as the leadoff man in all 17 games since July 1, which will get him extra chances to reach and subsequently score, which is the prop we're focusing on today. Greene ranks 10th on the team in runs on the season despite playing in only 27 games. Jonathan Schoop, the team leader with 31 runs, has played in 88.

Greene will take his hacks against Oakland A's left-hander Zach Logue, who is getting the call to start Game 1 of Thursday's doubleheader. Logue is a soft-tosser who doesn't miss a lot of bats, striking out just 17.4% of batters while wielding a fastball that barely eclipses 90 mph. It will be tougher for a pitcher like him to punch Greene out as a result.

Logue also has the issue of walking more than three batters per nine innings — both at the MLB and minor-league levels — and could get himself into trouble, especially against a patient bat like Greene's. It's a reason why I'm leaning more to the runs scored prop than the total bases one.

Greene could easily reach on a walk, which doesn't count toward total bases and come around to score as Logue struggles to put batters away. Plus, while Greene hasn't struggled to hit vs. fellow southpaws, he hasn't shown a lot of pop in those scenarios this season.

So I like Greene to be the primary beneficiary of batting leadoff against an A's hurler who can't keep traffic off the bases behind him. 

Riley Greene Prop: Over 0.5 runs scored (+120 at DraftKings)

King of the Rodon

Carlos Rodon is one of the pre-eminent strikeout pitchers in baseball, boasting a K/9 of 11.23 and a four-seam fastball that averages 95.4 mph, which ranks in the 89th percentile among starting pitchers. He's essentially a three-pitch hurler, favoring the fastball while mixing in his devastating slider and occasional changeup.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, his opponents tonight, do a lot of things right at the plate but they don't overwhelm lefty pitchers, ranking outside the Top 10 in MLB in wRC+ vs. southpaws. 

Rodon is currently on an excellent streak of starts. Dating back to June 12, Rodon has a 1.57 ERA and has thrown at least six innings in five of seven starts while striking out seven or more six times. And though he was named to the NL All-Star roster, Rodon did not appear in the game, so he should be plenty rested after last pitching on July 14.

Even against an elite lineup like the one Los Angeles trots out on a nightly basis, I like Rodon to go Over his strikeouts prop at -130, which carries about a 57% probability of being successful. 

Carlos Rodon Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-130 at bet365)

MLB parlay

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