Sometimes MLB prop betting is just about riding the hot hand until it gets cold. That's what I'm doing today as I back the hottest hitter in the majors in Byron Buxton, while also putting my money on MLB's hottest pitcher in Zac Gallen despite a tough matchup versus the Rangers.
I'm also looking at Astros rookie Hunter Brown in a more favorable matchup against the Giants as I bring you my best free MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, May 2.
MLB props for May 2
Picks made on 5/2/2023 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Put your bucks on Buxton
If Twins center fielder Byron Buxton could just stay healthy, he'd be one of the most feared hitters in the bigs. Buxton had 28 homers in only 92 games last season, and he's been making even better contact this year.
He's been red-hot over the last week, with four dingers and three doubles in just five games. When he makes contact he can drive the ball, and he should have few problems making contact against the White Sox today.
Chicago is sending Michael Kopech to the hill, and he's been terrible this season, pitching to a 7.71 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP in five starts. The White Sox have also been brutal in the bullpen, with their relievers ranking last in the majors in ERA (6.86), WHIP (1.76), and OBA (.290).
Buxton also has a history of crushing the ball at Guaranteed Rate Field, boasting a slugging percentage of .578 in 32 games at the venue. With the wind blowing out towards the outfield at 18 mph today, back him to go Over 1.5 total bases.
Bryon Buxton Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Prop bet #2: Gallen weighs down Rangers
Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen has been on fire over the last month. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last four starts, and has walked just one batter while racking up 41 strikeouts through 27 innings.
I'm reluctant to play the Under 1.5 earned runs for Gallen tonight, since he's facing a Rangers squad that surprisingly ranks second in the majors with 6.36 runs per game. I'm also shying away from the Under 1.5 walks prop, since Gallen tends to target the edges of the strike zone (albeit with pinpoint accuracy this season).
However, I do like the Over 6.5 strikeouts for Gallen despite it being juiced to about -140. Despite how well the Rangers have been hitting, they rank a modest 14th in the majors in strikeout rate (22.8%), with that number ticking up to 25.2% over their last three games.
Gallen is fifth in the majors with 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings, and he ranks in the Top 20th percentile in chase rate and whiff percentage. With Gallen fanning at least seven batters in five of six starts this year (and hitting double digits in three of his last four outings), take the Over here.
Zac Gallen Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Prop bet #3: What can Brown do for you?
Hunter Brown is the latest young pitcher making noise for the Astros. The 24-year-old earned valuable experience in the postseason last year, and entered this season as their top prospect, which he has lived up to.
The youngster still has issues with his command, and struggled in two starts when he gave up four earned runs before getting the hook after 4 2/3 innings both times. However, he pitched seven innings of shutout ball in each of his other three outings.
Brown throws three pitches with confidence, and his fastball averages 95.9 mph. That should mean plenty of whiffs today for a Giants team that ranks dead-last in the majors in strikeout rate (27.5%).
With Brown fanning at least seven batters in three of his last four starts, take the Over 6.5 on his strikeout prop.
Hunter Brown Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+104)
