Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Flaherty Won't Have Fun Against Texas

Prop bet #1: Unstoppable force

The Luis Arraez hit machine keeps on rolling. Despite an 0-2 start last night, the Miami Marlins second baseman recorded yet another multi-hit game and is now hitting an incredible .401 for the season. 

And as long as sportsbooks keep giving us decent plus money on the Over for Arraez’s total hits, I’m going to keep betting it — particularly when he’s going against Jordan Lyles and the Kansas City Royals.

Whether or not Arraez will be able to keep up the chase for the magical .400 will be an interesting topic for the rest of the season. What isn’t a question is that Arraez is the best contact hitter in baseball and he is as locked in as ever, even by his lofty standards. The 26-year-old is hitting a crazy .524 with a 1.182 OPS over the last 11 games and has recorded a multi-hit game eight times over that span. Tonight, he gets a really juicy matchup against Lyles.

The veteran RHP is not much more than an innings eater for the Royals at this point. Lyles is pitching to a 5.16 expected ERA and surrendering a .504 expected slugging percentage to opponents. Arraez only has three career ABs vs. Lyles but has one hit for a double. 

Mix in a Royals bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA and WHIP, and Arraez should keep swinging a hot stick tonight. And as I said, the plus money for this is too good to pass up.

Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+140)

Prop bet #2: That time of the rotation

Happy Fade Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate. While Corbin may have lost the crown as baseball’s best fade, the Washington Nationals’ starter isn’t far off.

While Corbin isn’t allowing as many runs as he has in recent years, his 6.11 expected ERA says some regression is coming. And while the runs may not be there, the hits sure are... a lot of them.

The left hander is surrendering a .316 expected batting average and a .521 expected slugging percentage to opposing teams — both of which rank in the Bottom 6% of MLB. On top of that, he is giving up 10.9 hits per nine innings.

The D-backs’ lineup has been a pleasant surprise this season. They enter tonight’s game ranking sixth in scoring and seventh in batting average and OPS. Arizona also handles lefties fairly well, ranking ninth in batting average and 16th in OPS when digging in against southpaws.

The other thing to like about fading Corbin is that while he isn’t pitching great, it doesn’t mean he isn’t pitching a lot. Corbin is averaging roughly 5 2/3 innings per start this season and has pitched into the sixth in nine of his 12 starts. 

That means plenty of chances for opposing teams to tally up some knocks. With Corbin allowing seven or more hits in nine of his 12 starts this season, I’m betting that continues in a matchup against a solid D-backs lineup.

Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-150)

Prop bet #3: Quick outing

It feels like ages ago that Jack Flaherty was one of the best young pitchers in the National League. But years of battling injuries have taken their toll on the St. Louis Cardinals starter and now it feels like the RHP has to grind through games. But hey, at least he is making regular starts.

Unfortunately for him, he gets one of his toughest tests of the season when he takes the ball against the Texas Rangers. 

Flaherty is quickly approaching the most innings pitched he has logged in a season since 2019 when he finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting. The results so far in 2023 have been up and down. The righty is pitching to a 4.61 expected ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He is also having trouble with handing out free passes, ranking in the Bottom 12% in walk rate.

Mix that with a matchup with one of the best lineups in baseball and that could mean a shorter outing for Flaherty. 

Nobody has scored more runs in baseball than the Rangers, and they mash right handers... leading the Majors in batting average and OPS while sitting second in wRC+ when facing righties this season.

Flaherty’s outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5. He’s averaging just under 5 1/3 innings (16 outs) per start and has only completed six innings in four of his 12 outings this season. Walks and a good offense are never a good combination for a pitcher. I like Flaherty to stay Under his outs recorded prop tonight.

Jack Flaherty prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115)