There’s nothing better to kick off a weekend during the dog days of summer than by cracking a cold beer, sitting back and watching some baseball, and cashing some bets at the same time.
So, let’s look for some winners in the MLB player prop market, where I highlight a pair of total bases props for National League sluggers who are on a tear. Then, at the opposite end of the spectrum, it could be a long night for Mariners outfielder Teoscar Hernandez going against an old foe in the Rays’ Shane McClanahan.
I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my best player props for Friday, June 30.
MLB props for June 30
- Goldschmidt Over 1.5 TB
- Walker Over 1.5 TB
- Hernandez Under 0.5 hits
Picks made on June 30 at 2:55 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Good as Goldschmidt
With the St. Louis Cardinals seemingly going nowhere this season, it’s sounding more and more like the team will try and move on from All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
All the former MVP is doing these days is upping his trade value by putting another great season on his resume. Goldschmidt is hitting .285 with a .863 OPS, including 14 home runs and 42 RBI, and the right-handed slugger is in another one of his patented grooves.
Goldschmidt has a .303 batting average and a .876 OPS over the last 16 games and gets a nice matchup tonight when he faces off against Luis Severino and the New York Yankees.
It has been a rough return to the rotation for Severino. The right-hander is pitching to an ugly 6.51 expected ERA while surrendering a .292 expected batting average and a .525 expected slugging percentage. All of those marks rank in the Bottom 5% of the MLB.
Severino’s biggest problem is with his fastball, which is getting hammered. The right-hander throws his four-seamer more than 52% of the time but is giving up .625 xSlugging on it. And wouldn’t you know it, Goldschmidt has a .516 xSlugging vs. fastballs this season.
Give me the Over on Goldschmidt’s total bases at even money.
Paul Goldschmidt prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Prop bet #2: Run to bet on Walker
The Arizona Diamondbacks are just a lot of fun. Rookie phenom Corbin Carroll was named as a starter to this year’s All-Star game but the lineup is full of solid bats, including that of first baseman Christian Walker.
Walker may not make it to the Midsummer Classic in Seattle this year due to the log-jam at first base in the National League, but the argument can be made that no one on the senior circuit is hitting the ball better than Walker right now.
The D-backs first baseman is having a solid season overall, hitting .281 with a .874 OPS, but the baseball must look like the size of a melon right now. Walker is currently in the middle of a 13-game hitting streak where he owns a .400 batting average and a 1.195 OPS, and he’ll have a great shot to keep that steak alive.
Tonight, he’ll dig in against Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning. The right-hander is pitching to a .402 expected ERA and surrendering a .418 opponent expected slugging percentage. Right-handed hitters have given Canning the most problems, getting to him for a .740 OPS. And it may be a small sample size, but Walker is 2-for-3 in his career vs. Canning.
Walker has been a total base machine during this hit streak, hitting the Over 1.5 nine times over this 13-game stretch, including the last five in a row. The plus money we are getting here is the cherry on top.
Christian Walker prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Prop bet #3: Hamstrung Hernandez
The Seattle Mariners traded for Teoscar Hernandez to add some pop to their lineup. And while he has swatted 15 dingers this season, Hernandez also brings cold streaks and a ton of strikeouts to the table.
The Mariners outfielder is currently in the middle of one of those cold snaps, and breaking out of it won’t be easy as he’ll have to dig in against the betting favorite in the American League Cy Young odds in Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays.
Hernandez has just two hits in his last 22 at-bats with 10 strikeouts over his last five games. That’s good for a .105 batting average and a .445 OPS. And while he does have a good track record against left-handed pitchers this season, McClanahan is not your typical southpaw and not the guy you typically bust out of a cold streak against.
McClanahan has looked great this season. The left-hander is pitching to a 3.77 expected ERA, limiting opponents to a .232 expected batting average while striking out 9.7 batters per nine innings. More importantly, he has owned Hernandez in this matchup.
Hernandez has faced off against McClanahan more than anyone else on the Mariners thanks to his time in the AL East, and that’s not a good thing. The M’s slugger is just 2-for-12 with four strikeouts in his career vs. McClanahan, where he has an xBA of .172 and an xSlugging of .312.
Mix in a Rays bullpen with the fourth-lowest opponent batting average, and Hernandez could be in for another 0-fer night at the plate. The plus money makes this a very worthwhile bet to kick off the weekend.
Teoscar Hernandez prop: Under 0.5 hits (+145)
Not intended for use in MA.
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