Ryan Mouncastle is an unstoppable force. When he is playing the Toronto Blue Jays that is. No matter what the Jays try they just cannot get the Orioles slugger out. Maybe they should employ the Shohei Ohtani strategy at this point and just give him free passes when he walks to the dish.
But I don’t expect that to happen with Kevin Gausman taking the mound for Toronto. But Gausman isn’t scaring me away from the Mountcastle siege on total bases props.
Then I look at a Yankees hitter who could be in for a tough night vs. the Astros, and the answer might surprise you. Followed by backing Cody Bellinger to continue his red-hot run for the Cubs.
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks below.
MLB props for August 3
- Mountcastle Over 1.5 TBs
- Torres Under 0.5 hits
- Bellinger Over 1.5 TBs
Picks made on August 3 at 1:45 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Defend the Castle
You had to know we were going to do this again. Ryan Mountcastle Over total bases vs. the Toronto Blue Jays is basically an auto bet at this point and with the Baltimore Orioles facing Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman, we are getting a little bit more value today.
For those who don’t know, Mountcastle is a Blue Jays killer. The O’s slugger is hitting .330 with a 1.037 OPS over 48 career games against the Jays. That includes a ridiculous 12 doubles and 15 home runs. He is already 7-9 (.778) with four doubles, three walks, and no strikeouts in the first three games of this series alone.
Now, Gausman has been great this season and he misses a lot of bats but when he does get hit, it’s relatively hard. Gausman ranks in the 11th percentile in hard hit percentage, the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity, and the 44th percentile in expected slugging.
It may also be shocking to hear this, but Mountcastle has had success against him as well. I mean, Gausman is a Blue Jay, right? Mountcastle is 3-9 with a double in his career vs. Gausman, good for a .608 expected slugging percentage.
With a +143 price tag, he is more than worth a bet today. The Mountcastle total bases train rolls on.
Ryan Mountcastle prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+143 at BetRivers)
Prop bet #2: Oh-fer Torres
The New York Yankees finally got some hits last night! Now, what are the odds they can do it two games in a row with the defending World Series champion Houston Astros coming to town?
The Yankees have been one of the worst lineups in baseball, for two months now. New York ranks dead last in batting average and 25th in OPS since the start of June. Now, Gleyber Torres has actually been one of the only reliable bats for the Yanks, but I don’t like the matchup for him tonight.
Cristian Javier gets the ball for the Astros in the opener of this weekend's set, and while he hasn’t been as effective as he was last year, he has some dominant numbers vs. the Yankees.
Javier made three starts (including the postseason) against the Yankees in 2023 and held them to one run on three hits over 17 1/3 innings of work — when the Yankees were good. Impressive stuff.
He also has Torres’ number as Torres is 0-7 with a strikeout in his career vs. Javier. That works out to a 0.063 expected batting average in addition to an ugly 35% whiff rate when facing Javier.
And yes, while Javier certainly hasn’t been the pitcher he was last year, his .235 opponent-expected batting average is still better than league average.
Javier will then hand the ball off to a strong Houston bullpen that ranks ninth in xFIP and leads the big leagues in strikeouts per nine innings.
At a +210 price tag, it’s worth taking a shot at Torres to have a donut at the dish tonight.
Gleyber Torres prop: Under 0.5 hits (+210 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Full Belly
The Cody Bellinger resurgence has without a doubt been one of my favorite stories in baseball this season.
Things were getting so bad for Bellinger people were wondering whether he could be an everyday big leaguer, let alone regain his elite form from a few years ago. But that’s exactly what has happened.
Bellinger’s year with the Chicago Cubs has been a revelation overall, but he’s taken it to the net level lately. Belly is hitting a ridiculous .400 with a 1.125 OPS with 14 extra-base hits over 28 games since the start of July.
The Cubs slugger will have a great chance to keep that going into August as he gets a nice matchup against Cincinnati Reds starter Luke Weaver.
Weaver has been nothing more than a glorified innings eater for the Reds. Weaver’s expected ERA is an ugly 5.82 and he is surrendering a .286 expected batting average and a .513 expected slugging percentage to opponents. Those each rank in the Bottom 6% of the big leagues or worse. He also isn’t striking out anyone, his 17% K-rate ranks in the 13th percentile.
Bellinger has been mashing right-handers all season for a .326 batting average and a .968 OPS. The +120 for Bellinger to go Over his total bases tonight is a solid price considering he has eclipsed this number 17 times in his 28 games played in July.
Cody Bellinger prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 DraftKings)
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