Welcome to the fourth edition of the MLB Power Rankings. Following the trade deadline, new roster moves have been accounted for in our rankings. However, they are done so in a way that is not weighted as heavily as they will be. You'll see their impact more in the next few weeks once they make their statistical impact on their respective teams.
We have our first change at the top this weekend, and it feels like it's been coming for a while now. The Los Angeles Dodgers have surpassed the New York Yankees after they led last week's rankings. A large part of this is the pitching gap between the two teams. As a collective, I have the Dodgers as the best staff in baseball, and that gap is as large as it's ever been.
Of course, the San Diego Padres acquiring Juan Soto is the main story in baseball this weekend. If last night, and their 9-1 thumping of the Colorado Rockies, is any indication, then the rest of baseball should beware, especially when Fernando Tatis Jr. returns.
The St. Louis Cardinals also continue to go toe-to-toe with the Milwaukee Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central. Despite currently trailing Milwaukee for first place in the standings, we have St. Louis ranked ahead of their divisional rivals this week.
Let's examine more in the MLB Power Rankings below:
MLB Power Rankings: Week of August 4
| Rank | Team (Radius) | Last Week's Rank | Record | World Series odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers (.690) | 2 | 71-33 | +380 |
| 2 | New York Yankees (.685) | 1 | 70-36 | +425 |
| 3 | Houston Astros (.655) | 3 | 68-38 | +425 |
| 4 | New York Mets (.616) | 4 | 66-38 | +650 |
| 5 | Atlanta Braves (.615) | 5 | 63-42 | +950 |
| 6 | Toronto Blue Jays (.571) | 6 | 58-46 | +1,200 |
| 7 | San Diego Padres (.565) | 9 | 61-46 | +1,100 |
| 8 | Philadelphia Phillies (.563) | 7 | 56-48 | +4,000 |
| 9 | Minnesota Twins (.551) | 8 | 55-49 | +6,000 |
| 10 | St. Louis Cardinals (.549) | 12 | 55-48 | +4,500 |
| 11 | Seattle Mariners (.547) | 10 | 57-49 | +3,500 |
| 12 | Milwaukee Brewers (.545) | 11 | 57-47 | +2,500 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Rays (.524) | 13 | 55-49 | +5,500 |
| 14 | Baltimore Orioles (.518) | 14 | 54-51 | +20,000 |
| 15 | San Francisco Giants (.515) | 16 | 51-54 | +18,000 |
| 16 | Boston Red Sox (.513) | 17 | 53-53 | +11,000 |
| 17 | Chicago White Sox (.509) | 15 | 53-51 | +3,500 |
| 18 | Cleveland Guardians (.507) | 18 | 54-50 | +10,000 |
| 19 | Texas Rangers (.488) | 21 | 46-58 | +100,000 |
| 20 | Miami Marlins (.476) | 19 | 48-57 | +100,000 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Angels (.468) | 22 | 44-60 | +100,000 |
| 22 | Arizona Diamondbacks (.462) | 20 | 46-58 | +200,000 |
| 23 | Chicago Cubs (.438) | 24 | 41-61 | +200,000 |
| 24 | Colorado Rockies (.436) | 23 | 46-61 | +200,000 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Reds (.431) | 25 | 42-62 | +200,000 |
| 26 | Kansas City Royals (.406) | 26 | 41-64 | +200,000 |
| 27 | Detroit Tigers (.400) | 28 | 42-64 | +100,000 |
| 28 | Oakland Athletics (.388) | 29 | 40-66 | +200,000 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh Pirates (.380) | 30 | 42-62 | +200,000 |
| 30 | Washington Nationals (.370) | 27 | 36-70 | +200,000 |
World Series odds via DraftKings.
Compare updated World Series futures before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Biggest Risers
St. Louis Cardinals (10)
There wasn't a ton of movement this week that surprised me, but the St. Louis Cardinals moving up was one (+2). According to our numbers, the Cardinals to win the NL Central is currently one of the best future bets you can make. We give them around a 55% chance of winning their division, making close to a 15% edge at their widely available price of +145.
A large part of their placement in this week's Power Rankings is how they continue to be the most unlucky team in baseball, which is another way of saying that they are better than their record. The Cardinals currently have the most significant difference between actual record and win expectancy. That gap continues to grow, and our rankings eventually expect it to close.
They are 6-4 in their last 10 and are gearing up for a critical series against the divisional-leading Milwaukee Brewers a week from now.
San Diego Padres (7)
The San Diego Padres (+2) made a nice jump this week. Surprised? I'm guessing not.
Even though we took the cautious approach of factoring in new additions, the Padres are still viewed as series contenders in this week's rankings. It's hard to deny what they have now. It's easy to point to the power and get enamored with it, but when you do that, you miss the other key factor. The Padres added really good baseball players.
Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury all rank in the Top 50 of MLB WAR. That's tough to ignore even without the overwhelming power.
Squad? Electric.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 4, 2022
Crowd? Electric. pic.twitter.com/wrET3iaPps
Biggest Fallers
Washington Nationals (30)
It seems pretty clear who the worst team in baseball is now, as the Washington Nationals (-3) made a sizable fall in their Radius and actual ranking. This one seems pretty explanatory. Just like the Padres added two Top 50 players in WAR, the Nationals also lost them.
It is worth noting, however, that we still don't have them as the third worst offense in baseball. Nobody wants to spend the end of the season wagering on Nationals team totals, but there may still be some value there vs. the public perception.
Watching the Washington Nationals pic.twitter.com/fkgmdfNl29
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) August 3, 2022
New York Yankees (2)
It's weird to place them here, but I think it's a worthy discussion. The New York Yankees (-1) only fell one spot but this week marked the third consecutive week with a drop in their Radius. Quite frankly, there was always going to be some regression from their historic start.
At one point a month ago, the Yankees were on pace to have some of the best slugging numbers of all-time, which wasn't sustainable. However, the concern that feels real is surrounding their pitching. We now have them as the third-best staff in baseball, and those margins for them falling further is thin.
Power Rankings methodology
Chris Hatfield's MLB Power Rankings are based heavily on the Pythagorean Theorem, pioneered by Bill James.
This process estimates the percentage of games a team should win and, therefore, where they fall in line in the MLB hierarchy. After that, he adds some secret sauce to develop a team's "radius," which includes a formula comprised of a team's collective expected ERA, run value, and wOBA, among other items.
This process not only attempts to show you how one formula views the landscape, but also which team has the best value to win the World Series vs. oddsmakers' expectations.
Through various sims, he finds the implied probability of one team achieving postseason success to help readers like yourself cash tickets. Just as importantly, Chris’ MLB Power Rankings are not a subjective list — and do not reflect odds between two teams in a given matchup.
