It's a great day for baseball, and we have you covered from coast to coast with our favorite MLB player props.
Zack Wheeler headlines tonight's selections on the mound, as he faces off against the San Diego Padres.
Best MLB player props today
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Wheeler o6.5 strikeouts (+115) -
Burns o6.5 strikeouts (+110) -
Devers o1.5 total bases (-109)
MLB props for June 30
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts (+115 at Caesars)
From a projections standpoint, this is one of my biggest edges among prop plays, with a fair price of around -110 against the plus-money market price.
This price reflects the San Diego Padres' status as one of the lowest strikeout teams in the majors, with just under seven strikeouts per game, which places them third in this metric. However, it doesn't capture the individual mismatch that Zack Wheeler presents.
It's been a relatively normal season for the veteran right-hander this year, and yet again, the strikeout numbers are elite. He enters this matchup ranking in the 95th percentile among all pitchers in strikeout percentage, at 32%. With that in the backdrop, he's gone Over this number in nine of his last 10 starts. The one time he didn't come against the Cardinals, a team with the seventh-lowest swing rate in the majors, with San Diego sitting way off that mark at 16th.
That's one piece of the puzzle, but the real story is the sweeper. Wheeler is throwing it 14% of the time and using it primarily as a put-out pitch, as it's creating a resounding 35% whiff rate. That's a problem for the Padres. If there's one pitch that this lineup struggles to get a handle on, it's the sweeper, with six players in the lineup today having an above-average strikeout rate against such pitches.
That's enough for me to take this number with such an elite whiff-inducing pitcher on the mound.
Chase Burns Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at Caesars)
Here we are again.
Last week, when Chase Burnes made his start against the Yankees, I suggested that a plus-money price on Burns at 5.5 was way too short, and there was too much conservatism because a rookie was on the mound. Burnes blew through that ceiling with relative ease, striking out 38% of the batters he saw, and tonight, that number has been moved a full strikeout with a similar price point.
It's still not enough.
I can wax poetically about all of the underlying strikeout numbers for Burns that make me exceptionally high on him (believe me, we have plenty of time left this season to do that). However, the primary story in this matchup hinges on the pitch mix.
His slider is downright filthy and, for my money, is already one of the best pitches in baseball. We saw glimpses against the Yankees, and he left that game with the breaking ball creating a 40% whiff rate. There's plenty of swing-and-miss in this Boston Red Sox lineup against that exact pitch, and that alone is enough to power him past this number even if he remains at a slightly reduced pitch count.
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases (-109 at Caesars)
In a slate that's short of suspect pitching, the San Francisco Giants will face off against one of the few in Ryne Nelson.
The numbers from the Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander are average across the board, but one of his most significant struggle points is the barrel rate. Power hitters have been able to find success against him, and his rate ranks in the bottom 30% of all major league pitchers. Enter Rafael Devers.
You don't need me to tell you that Devers is a good candidate for barreling up the baseball, but I can give you some numbers anyway. Coming into this game, the new Giant leads all San Fran players in barrel rate and is inside the Top 5 percentile of all players with a rate that hovers just over 16. Naturally, that put him on my radar in this spot. To strengthen his case is the fastball-heavy approach from Nelson.
It's close to the only pitch Nelson knows, with the high-velocity stuff making up over 70% of his total arsenal. That should be music to the ears of a player hitting nearly .300 against the heater this season with an expected batting average that's even higher.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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