Join me as I dive into why I'm also expecting big nights from Munetaka Murakami and Griffin Conine in my three favorite MLB player props for Aug. 12.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Griffin Conine |
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI | +105 |
 Carmen Mlodzinski |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | +123 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | +131 |
Griffin Conine Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+105)
I have to run back Miami Marlins outfielder Griffin Conine after flying out to the wall in his first at-bat last night, only to later be robbed at the wall. I think Conine is beyond due for a massive outing, and today he draws an even better matchup against Pittsburgh Pirates starter Carmen Mlodzinski.
The Pirates right-hander has allowed a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.36% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last five starts. Against the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced, they own a .352 xBA, .538 xSLG and .367 xwOBA. During that stretch, those hitters are generating a 47% hard-hit rate and 29.8% ground-ball rate.
With Conine carrying a .529 SLG and .264 ISO while producing a 50% hard-hit rate and 22.75% barrel rate over his last ten games, I think he is primed to go off this evening.
Plus money for a guy performing at the level Conine is right now feels like a steal. I would try my best to get this prop at plus money, but I’m comfortable playing it down to -105.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SNP
Carmen Mlodzinski Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+123)
I absolutely love the idea of the Miami Marlins popping off against Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski.
As mentioned above, he has been allowing a ton of hard contact and barrels to opposing hitters while struggling against left-handed hitters. The Marlins will have five hitters batting from the left side this evening.
Mlodzinski has allowed a 51.72% hard-hit rate and nearly a 14% barrel rate to opposing hitters over his last three starts, while sporting a 5.18 xERA against the last 60 lefties he has faced. It is going to be a long game for Mr. Mlodzinski.
The Marlins have posted a 138 wRC+, .366 wOBA and .823 OPS over their last 12 games at home, while also owning an 11% walk rate. On top of that, the Fightin’ Fish rank eighth in first-five scoring at home this season, averaging 2.84 runs.
The amount of hard contact Mlodzinski has been allowing should continue this evening, and the Marlins will feast on his offerings.
Take this down to +110.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MIAM, SNP
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Total Bases (+131)
We are getting a ton of value on Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami to go Over his 1.5 total bases prop this evening, with it sitting at +131.
Murakami owns the highest rating in this matchup on Batters-Box, while covering nearly 100% of Cincinnati Reds right-hander Rhett Lowder’s entire pitch mix. Through 47 elite ratings this season, the White Sox slugger has surpassed this prop 53.19% of the time, going over in seven of his last 10 elite ratings as well.
Over his last 10 games, the first baseman is slugging .512 while owning a 30% ground-ball rate, 61% hard-hit rate and 21.7% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Lowder, on the road against left-handed bats, is allowing just a 32.6% ground-ball rate while allowing a 41.8% hard-hit rate.
I would take this down to +120, but +131 is a fantastic price.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, CINR
- Prop picks: 387-752, -17.4 Units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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