The dust has settled from yesterday’s trade deadline and we have a better picture of how teams — good and bad — will look down the stretch. It also means we can go all out on MLB player props.
MLB props for July 31
- Wood o0.5 RBI (+220 at bet365)
- Alvarez o0.5 RBI (+145 at bet365)
- Freeland u17.5 outs (+105 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: James Wood Over 0.5 RBI
You guys are going to be annoyed with how much I’m going to gush about the Washington Nationals for the remainder of the season but I’m sorry, I think their future is very bright and outfielder James Wood is a big part of that future.
The Nats' No. 1 prospect is already showing flashes of his tantalizing potential despite playing in just 25 big-league games. While he is hitting .235 with a .672 OPS, the 21-year-old would rank among the league leaders in average exit velocity, barrel, and hard-hit rate.
Since he’s such a young player, it’s reasonable for him to be streaky and, luckily for us, he’s on a bit of a high. Wood is 6-for-14 (.429) over his last four games with three extra-base hits and three runs batted in and I like his odds to drive in another against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.
On paper, going against Zac Gallen looks like a tough matchup for Wood, but the D-Backs ace has taken a bit of a step back this season. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.20 expected ERA and surrendering a.258 expected batting average to opponents.
July has been rough for Gallen, pitching to a 6.00 ERA while giving up a .283 batting average.
All that to say the +220 price tag on a Wood RBI is giving us some value tonight as he's driven in at least one run in three of five.
Prop bet #2: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBI
The Houston Astros have unsurprisingly climbed back into the race for the American League West. They begin the day just a game behind the Seattle Mariners for top spot in the division and a big part of that turnaround has been because Yordan Alvarez does nothing but mash baseballs.
The Astros slugger enters tonight’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates hitting .299 with a .916 OPS, 20 home runs, and 55 runs batted in. He has also been locked in this month, upping those numbers to .320 and 1.020 OPS with four home runs and 14 of those RBI coming in July.
I like him to stay hot in this matchup with the Pirates. Now, Pittsburgh has a lot of talented young arms but today’s starter, veteran Jake Woodford, isn’t one of them.
Woodford is a 27-year-old right-hander who got released by the Chicago White Sox of all teams after allowing 10 earned runs on 15 hits in just two starts in late May/early June. Think about that. He was so bad, the White Sox cut him and will now make his first start with the Pirates.
While Air Yordan hasn’t driven in a ton of runs recently, that may just be giving us a better price today. The Over on Alvarez’s RBI prop is on the board at +145, which looks like a gift considering the matchup, and our Covers Prop Projections have it listed as a five-star play for our MLB picks.
Prop bet #3: Kyle Freeland Under 17.5 outs recorded
The Kyle Freeland “hot streak” abruptly came to an end the last time he took the ball and I’m betting the left-hander has another short outing when he and the Colorado Rockies visit the Los Angeles Angels.
After a run of pretty good pitching from the Rockies southpaw, everything came crashing down when the San Francisco Giants tagged Freeland for six runs on eight hits over four innings of work.
The loss meant his expected ERA rose to 5.25 while his opponent expected batting average rose to .291. Those rank in the eighth and fourth percentiles, respectively, among MLB pitchers. He also isn’t striking out a ton of batters, with a K-rate ranking in the 16th percentile.
Freeland has also been atrocious on the road this season, where his ERA balloons to 9.66 while giving up a 1.094 OPS to opponents.
So, even a matchup against the Angels won’t be easy, and honestly, the Halos haven’t been too bad vs. southpaws this season. They rank 16th in batting average, and 19th in OPS and wRC+ vs. lefties.
The other thing to like about a short outing for Freeland tonight is his leash. His outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 for this matchup and while he’s gone Over that in five of his 10 starts this season, it feels like he’s had a little luck on his side to get those innings as he averages just 81.6 pitches per start.
Four of Freeland’s six road starts have stayed below this number and our Covers Prop Projections have him pegged at 15.9 outs, almost two outs below the number, making this a five-star play.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
