A full slate on Tuesday means there is so much to get into with the MLB player props market.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Spet. 1, including why Roman Anthony is going to light up Bryan Woo.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Roman Anthony |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -111 |
 Sean Manaea |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -103 |
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 hits | -156 |
Roman Anthony Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-111)
One of the smallest sample sizes to go off, but Boston Red Sox future star Roman Anthony has been demolishing the baseball since returning from injury. No ball is safe with Anthony in the box, with four of his last eight batted balls leaving the bat at over 101 mph.
The Red Sox slugger enters today with a strong rating on Batters-Box, where he is covering nearly 90% of Seattle Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo’s pitch mix. In 21 strong ratings, Anthony has surpassed this prop 71.43% of the time.
Woo has been pretty rocky on the road this season. Against left-handed hitters on the road, he is allowing a 46% hard-hit rate and a 66.4% elevation rate.
On top of that, over his last 30 batters faced, hitters have generated nearly a 70% hard-hit rate, a 13.6% barrel rate, and a 72.7% elevation rate.
After returning white-hot, tonight sets up as another spot for Anthony to boom.
Take this down to -120.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, SEAM
Sean Manaea Over 2.5 earned runs (-103)
New York Mets veteran left-hander Sean Manaea has been struggling over his last few starts, but his recent road outings have been far worse.
The southpaw owns a 7.00 ERA and 6.27 xERA over his last three starts, allowing nearly 50% hard-hit and nearly 21% barrel rates to opposing hitters.
In his last three road outings, Manaea is allowing a 46.8% hard-hit rate, 23.4% barrel rate, and 27.7% elevation rate. Opposing hitters during that stretch own a .559 xSLG and .384 xwOBA.
The Tampa Bay Rays enter Tuesday with three elite-rated hitters on Batters-Box, with Ryan Vilade, Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz all grading as elite.
Those three hitters should help kick-start the offense this evening, as they have been generating a ton of hard contact and barreled balls over their last few games and against left-handed hitters this season.
If you can find this prop at 1.5 runs, or the Rays F5 team total at 1.5, take it. The number is more important than the price. Every team in baseball except for the Blue Jays averages two or more runs in the first five innings. If you are willing to pay the juice, you are asking a team to simply do what it usually does.
Take this prop down to -110.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, SNY
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits (-156)
Despite his recent cold streak, Chicago White Sox rookie sensation Munetaka Murakami is in a strong matchup this evening against Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco.
The White Sox slugger enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he covers nearly 90% of Blanco’s arsenal.
In 62 elite ratings this season, Murakami has recorded at least one hit 66% of the time. On the road, he has recorded at least one hit 65% of the time, gone over 1.5 total bases 53% of the time, and homered 31% of the time. That comes from a 32-game sample.
Blanco has faced 42 left-handed hitters at home this season, and those lefties own a .306 batting average, .611 slugging percentage and .434 wOBA. They are also elevating the baseball at a 72% clip while generating a 36% hard-hit rate.
Overall this season, left-handed hitters have posted a 52.3% fly-ball rate and 2.57 HR/9 against Blanco.
At -156, this is a great price for Murakami to do the bare minimum. Take this down to -160, or take his home run and double straight.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, SCHN
- Prop picks: 452-897, -11.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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