A full slate of baseball games means a complete selection of MLB expert picks.
Our five best baseball brains have pored over the odds to come up with a slew of MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday, Sept. 1, including the Chicago Cubs moneyline and the Over at Wrigley Field.
Let's kick off the new month right.
MLB expert picks for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: CHW ML |
53% |
 Jon Metler: ARI ML |
45% |
 Neil Parker: CHC ML |
54% |
 Joe Osborne: MIL/CHC o10.5 |
46% |
 Dustin Saracini: PHI/ARI u7.5 |
49% |
Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Trade on MLB at Polymarket!
Sign up now using our exclusive Polymarket promo code 'COVERS' (on your mobile app only) and get a $20 trading bonus after you deposit $10 to trade on any other event contracts — including MLB expert picks!
*Eligible locations only
Josh Inglis' expert pick: White Sox ML
Price: 53¢ at Polymarket
There's a lot to unpack here, and a lot of it comes down to having no interest in the Houston Astros today.
First, the starting pitching matchup is much further apart than this line suggests. Ronel Blanco is not an MLB-caliber starter and just gave up 10 runs while recording only seven outs in his last Triple-A start. He currently owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings, along with the fifth-worst HR/9.
Making matters worse for Blanco, the Houston bullpen is taxed. The Astros are down four arms today, including high-leverage relievers Bryan Abreu and Steven Okert.
The Chicago White Sox, meanwhile, had a Top-7 bullpen last month and have all but one arm available.
Finally, per Kevin Roth, a tropical storm is heading toward Houston today. I would think that situation could weigh more heavily on the home team, with roots and families in the area, than the visiting club. I have Chicago as a 57% favorite today.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- How to watch: CHSN, SCHN
Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline
Price: 45¢ at Polymarket
Jesus Luzardo is one of the toughest starting pitchers in the National League, and his sweeper has been one of his biggest weapons this season, carrying a +20 run value and a 47.9% whiff rate. The pitch is especially effective against left-handed hitters, but it loses some of its effectiveness against righties.
That could limit its impact in this matchup, as the Arizona Diamondbacks are likely to feature a lineup with Corbin Carroll as their only left-handed hitter. On the other side, the Philadelphia Phillies' two most dangerous hitters, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, also face a difficult matchup against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez can use his changeup to fade away from barrels, giving him an effective weapon against Philadelphia's left-handed power.
The Diamondbacks are trading at 45% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 49% underdog, which is why I'm hitting the button.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 54¢ at Polymarket
The Chicago Cubs pace the majors in wOBA, xwOBA and ISO while averaging 7.5 runs per game across the past two weeks, and the Milwaukee Brewers are sending lefty Robert Gasser (4.52 xERA on the road) to the hill.
Chicago also leads the league in wOBA and ISO against southpaws, and Matthew Boyd is coming off a tidy start last time out.
I expect Boyd to keep the Brewers off balance enough for the Cubbies to pull away.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: Brewers.TV, Marquee
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers at Cubs Over 10.5
Price: 46¢ at Polymarket
Both pitching staffs will have their hands full, with two red-hot offenses and a little bit of wind blowing out at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs and Brewers rank first and third in OPS over the past week, with the Cubbies scoring a ridiculous 47 runs in their last four games, including 17 last night!
Gasser has a 5.10 road ERA and faces MLB’s top lineup against lefties over the past month. Boyd owns a 5.44 home ERA, and Brewers hitters have had his number, combining for a .825 OPS against him in 86 at-bats.
On the surface, both bullpens have been decent, but a deeper dive has them ranked 22nd and 26th in FIP over the past two weeks. Over 10.5 runs is the play.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: TBS
Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Phillies at Diamondbacks Under 7.5
Price: 49¢ at Polymarket
We have a pair of aces coming off their best starts of the season against two offenses in the Bottom 10 for wRC+. Smells like an Under to me.
While Luzardo is coming off a seven-inning shutout, E-Rod has thrown 12 2/3 straight scoreless innings. Both thrive in this specific matchup, too, with Luzardo limiting this D-backs offense to a .293 xwOBA, and the Phillies owning just a .230 xBA against Rodriguez.
Worried about Schwarber here? He's hitless in eight at-bats against Rodriguez, striking out four times.
Don't overthink this one. I'd play it up to 55 cents.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- How to watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia, Diamondbacks.TV
More MLB best bets for today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| LAD ML | 62% |
| Read analysis in our Cardinals vs. Dodgers predictions | |
| MIN ML | 49% |
| Read analysis in our Tigers vs. Twins predictions | |
| TEX -1.5 | 47% |
| Read analysis in our A's vs. Rangers predictions | |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
