MLB Player Props for 8-8: Best Bets for Luis Ortiz, Shane Baz, & Bryan Woo

Prop bet #1: Luis Ortiz Under 17.5 outs

-109 at BetRivers

Pittsburgh Pirates righty Luis Ortiz has thrown at least 86 pitches in each of his past five starts, and he’s only allowed 10 runs across 29 innings (3.10 ERA). The underlying numbers tell a different story with his 4.78 xFIP significantly higher than the highlighted ERA, and Ortiz has also been incredibly fortunate with a .214 BABIP and 82.7 strand rate. 

I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in in a tough matchup against the San Diego Padres on Thursday. The Friars sport a fourth-ranked .330 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and their 17.9 strikeout percentage is the lowest in baseball against righties. It’s a bad set up for Ortiz because he’s posted a pedestrian 6.43 K/9 and 18.4 K% as a starter this season.

Prop bet #2: Shane Baz Over 4.5 strikeouts

+124 at FanDuel

This will be the sixth start of the season for Tampa Bay Rays righty Shane Baz, and while his strikeout metrics are down from his prior cups of coffee in the bigs in 2021 and 2022, he’s still fanned five or more batters in four of his five 2024 starts. It’s also notable that he's only topped 90 pitches once this year and only completed six innings twice.

There’s no doubt the Rays are going to continue handling the former top prospect with kid gloves moving forward, but there’s also potential for Baz to inch closer to triple-digit pitches and he’s only thrown 64 1/3 innings across 15 starts between Triple-A Durham and the majors.

This is a more middling than daunting matchup for Baz on Thursday, too. The St. Louis Cardinals rank 13th in wOBA (.314) and strikeout the 16th-most (22.7%) against right-handed arms this season. So, my MLB picks expect more of the same from Baz with the potential for him to pitch a little deeper into the game and put five or more ticks in the strikeouts column tonight.

Prop bet #3: Bryan Woo Under 5.5 strikeouts

-108 at FanDuel

This is an inflated total for Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo because he’s recorded five or fewer strikeouts in nine of 12 starts this season, including four or fewer in seven of those outings. Even with the Detroit Tigers having the ninth-highest strikeout rate (23.7%) against right-handed pitchers this season, I still think this total is an overreaction to the matchup and Woo fanning seven batters in his last start.

After all, Woo’s 6.38 K/9 and 18.4 K% rank eighth and 18th-lowest, respectively, among the 135 starting pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. He’s also carried a 4.5 strikeout total or lower in five of his past six starts, and the Under has hit in four of six. 

There’s also statistical correction looming for Woo. He’s sporting a tidy 2.08 ERA that’s fuelled by an unsustainable .240 BABIP and 81.0% strand rate. His 3.93 xFIP is solid, but obviously far higher than his ERA, and pitching to contact leaves him more susceptible to negative regression than if he were striking out batters at a higher rate.