Let's dive into my favorite MLB player props and MLB picks to attack on Thursday, July 23.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Shane Bieber |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | -116 |
 Junior Caminero |
Over 1.5 Total Bases | -110 |
 Brandon Pfaadt |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -111 |
Shane Bieber Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-116)
The Tampa Bay Rays offense is one of the highest rated on this five game slate, as they draw Toronto Blue Jays right hander Shane Bieber, one of the lowest rated pitchers on Batters-Box.
Over his last five starts, Bieber owns a 5.70 ERA, 7.35 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP. During that stretch, opposing hitters have generated a 53% hard hit rate and nearly a 12% barrel rate against him.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been seeing the ball extremely well over the last week, posting a 144 wRC+, .373 wOBA, and .850 OPS. With the way Bieber has been pitching lately, this feels like a great spot to fade him this afternoon.
I would play this prop down to -120 if I had to.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, Sportsnet
Junior Caminero Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Rays superstar Junior Caminero enters Thursday with one of the highest matchup ratings on Batters-Box, while covering 71% of Bieber’s pitch mix.
On top of that, he has strong trends when elite on the road, surpassing this prop 60% of the time when elite, while also leaving the yard 30% of the time across 20 elite road games.
This season, through 33 elite rated games, Caminero has gone over this prop 54.55% of the time while leaving the yard 24.24% of the time.
The Rays slugger has been on an absolute tear over his last 30 at-bats against right handed pitching, posting a .375 BA, 1.042 OPS, .457 wOBA, while generating a 52.6% hard hit rate and 10.5% barrel rate.
As for Bieber, right handed hitters have been crushing him this season, producing a 55% hard hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and 60% elevation rate. On top of that, they own a .402 xBA, .732 xSLG, and .470 xwOBA against him.
Caminero is one of my favorite looks on the board today, and I would pay this down to -120.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, Sportsnet
Brandon Pfaadt Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-111)
Everyone’s favorite pitcher during the 2023 MLB playoffs, Arizona Diamondbacks right hander Brandon Pfaadt, is who we are fading this evening by taking the under on his strikeout prop.
Sure, the young right hander has pitched well over his last few starts, but he still owns just a 15% strikeout rate across his last 5 outings.
Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals have been fantastic at making contact at home, sporting a 77.5% contact rate. Over their last 6 games, that number sits at 76.7%.
With a sub 20% strikeout rate at home this season, I expect the Cardinals to minimize the whiffs and put plenty of balls in play against the Diamondbacks right hander.
Play this down to -115 at the most.
- Time: 5:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
- Prop picks: 330-620, -4.2 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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