It may be a super small slate, but with games rolling all day long, there are still plenty of ways to keep the vibes high from your lunch break all the way through dinner.
My favorite MLB props target a pair of player props from the White Sox vs. Twins matchup, along with another play from the Blue Jays vs. Orioles game that stands out on tonight’s board.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jesus Sanchez |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | +125 |
 Davis Martin |
Over 5.5 strikeouts | +100 |
| Munetaka Murakami |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | +100 |
Jesus Sanchez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+125)
Let's head to the 6ix to start my MLB picks.
Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been on a tear lately, posting a .433 wOBA and 44.44% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers.
This evening, he draws Baltimore Orioles veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has a poorly rated average-hitter matchup wOBA and strikeout percentage, per Batters-Box.
Left-handed hitters have given the veteran some trouble recently, as they are producing a 42.9% hard contact rate, 26.2% line drive rate, and 38.1% fly ball rate over the last 60 batters faced.
These lefties are making a ton of hard contact and consistently elevating the baseball. They also own a .352 xBA, .533 xSLG, and .334 xwOBA during that span.
With Sanchez carrying nearly 75% arsenal coverage against Bassitt’s offerings, combined with how well he has been seeing the ball and how often the veteran right-hander has been allowing lefties to mash, this feels like a great spot for him to have a ton of success.
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet 1, MASN
Davis Martin Over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
One of the most exciting pitchers to watch through the early part of the season has easily been Davis Martin, the pride and joy of the Chicago White Sox starting rotation.
The 29-year-old has been wheeling and dealing all season long, averaging 6.6 strikeouts per game, while averaging 7.25 at home. Over his last five starts, he owns a 32.5% strikeout rate, along with a 32.7% whiff rate and a 17% swinging strike rate.
He draws a Minnesota Twins offense that has been a bit swing-happy on the road, owning a 24.9% strikeout rate, the fifth-highest mark in baseball.
Their lineup features five hitters with at least a 23.3% strikeout rate over their last 30 road plate appearances. Zoom in a little more, and three of them own at least a 30% strikeout rate during that stretch.
The power of friendship is extremely strong in that White Sox clubhouse, and I expect Martin to help lead this team to another series win while cashing this prop. I would take this down to -110. Anything lower than that, try to find plus money if possible.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, MNMT
Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (+100)
We are going back to the well, as Chicago White Sox sensation Munetaka Murakami is in yet another great spot against Twins right-hander Taj Bradley.
The young righty leans heavily on his fastball, with nearly 50% of his arsenal made up of the pitch. Against fastballs this season, Murakami owns a .374 expected batting average, along with a 1.152 OPS and .476 wOBA.
He is also generating over 50% hard contact against fastballs this season, along with every other offering in Bradley’s arsenal.
The No. 1-rated hitter on Batters-Box has posted incredible trends while carrying an elite rating. Through 28 elite ratings this season, the slugger records:
- 1+ hit: 71.43%
- 2+ bases: 53.57%
- 2+ HRR: 57.14%
- HR: 42.86%
He has also surpassed this prop in six of his last 10 elite ratings.
Bradley has been allowing a ton of hard contact to opposing left-handers, as they are producing 42.9% hard contact along with a 14.3% barrel rate.
They are also consistently elevating the baseball, posting a 54.3% fly ball rate and just a 28.6% ground ball rate. With how hot Murakami has been, getting a price like this feels like a steal.
Also, do not be afraid to sprinkle on the home run.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, MNMT
- Prop picks: 166-285-26, +6.40 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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