I’m back with more MLB picks following last week’s 3-for-3 showing at the plate, and this time I’ve found some great value in a plus-money prop for Freddie Freeman, as well as picks for Byron Buxton and Chase Burns.
I’ll break down all three in my MLB player props for Saturday, June 27.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Freddie Freeman |
Over 1.5 total bases | +118 |
 Byron Buxton |
Over 1.5 total bases | -126 |
 Chase Burns |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -156 |
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+118)
Freddie Freeman is putting together another great season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he’s only getting better as the summer wears on, batting .429 over the past week with Over 1.5 total bases in each of his last three games.
Randy Vasquez takes the hill for the San Diego Padres tonight, and he has been hammered over the past month.
The southpaw carries a bloated 6.91 ERA over his last six starts, which comes as no surprise given his underlying stats – Vasquez sits in the second percentile in xERA (6.47), xBA (2.97), and barrel %.
Vasquez goes to his cutter nearly a quarter of the time, though it’s been his worst pitch, with batters hitting .345 and slugging .655 against it.
Freeman himself is batting .375 vs. the cutter this season, with a .708 SLG and six extra-base knocks (out of 9 total hits).
I’m surprised this prop is plus-money tonight, but I’m playing it all the way to -110.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health, SportsNet LA,
Byron Buxton Over 1.5 total bases (-126)
The Byron Buxton breakout bash continues. The Minnesota Twins slugger ranks in the 98th percentile in barrel % and 94th percentile in xSLG (.528). Oh, and his 25 dingers are also tied for the second most in the majors.
Buxton has smacked Over 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven games, highlighted by a three-hit outing in yesterday’s series opener against the Colorado Rockies. Buxton will make easy work of the Rockies and starter Michael Lorenzen tonight.
Lorenzen has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, sitting in the bottom percentile in pitching run value and second percentile in xBA (.297).
The right-hander relies heavily on his four-seamer, which has been one of Buxton’s favorite pitches to hit. Buxton is batting a team-leading .364 against the four-seamer from righties, with an insane .891 SLG – the ninth-best mark in MLB.
I’ll play this one up to -135.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Twins.TV
Chase Burns Over 6.5 strikeouts (-156 at DraftKings)
Chase Burns is averaging 10.7 strikeouts per nine this year, tied for the fourth most in MLB. The Cincinnati Reds sophomore has punched out 7+ batters in seven straight starts, and I foresee him topping that number again vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates today.
Pittsburgh’s 9.27 strikeouts per game are the third most in the majors, and the Pirates will struggle against Burns’ nasty slider.
Burns has finished off 69 of his 102 strikeouts via the slider, which batters are whiffing on more than 51% of the time.
The Pirates, as a team, have gone down swinging 214 times vs. the slider this season (4th-most), while their K% ranks 7th among all clubs (29.9%).
This one is chalky for good reason, but I’ll play it up to -160.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Reds.TV
- Prop picks: 6-5, +0.09 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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