Reigning NL Cy Young winner Paul Skenes takes the mound tonight, and the Pittsburgh Pirates ace leads off my MLB picks for Saturday, June 20.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Otto Lopez round out my favorite MLB player props today, and I’ll break down all three picks below.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Paul Skenes |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -116 |
 Pete Crow-Armstrong |
Over 1.5 total bases | +111 |
 Otto Lopez |
Over 0.5 singles | -153 |
Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts (-116)
Paul Skenes has not been quite as dominant this season compared to last year’s Cy Young-winning performance, but it’s still early, and there are plenty of positive signs for the Pittsburgh Pirates ace.
Skenes is still piling up the strikeouts, ranking second in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings (10.9). The right-hander has tossed Over 6.5 strikeouts in four straight outings and nine of his last 10, and he’ll have the upper hand in tonight’s matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies are averaging 8.78 strikeouts per nine innings — sixth most in MLB — and they’re particularly susceptible to the four-seamer, which happens to be Skenes’ go-to punchout pitch (49 of Skenes' 99 Ks).
The Rockies have 227 Ks against that pitch — the most in the majors. This prop feels like an absolute steal at -116, and I would confidently play it up to -130.
- Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Rockies.TV
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 total bases (+111)
The weather is heating up, and so is Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Toronto’s bullpen will be in rough shape following yesterday’s brutal defeat, where the Jays went through seven different arms — including more than an inning of work from outfielder Myles Straw!
Starter Patrick Corbin has been serviceable for an injury-riddled Blue Jays rotation, but the southpaw ranks near the bottom of MLB in xERA (5.48; 12th percentile) and xBA (.291; 5th percentile).
PCA actually has stronger reverse splits this year, hitting .286 vs. lefties. He’s also hammered the sinker for a .487 average, which happens to be Corbin’s most common pitch and one he goes to nearly 30% of the time.
We’re getting great value again with a favorable matchup, so I’d play this prop up to -115.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, Sportsnet
Otto Lopez Over 0.5 singles (-153)
Luis Arraez has led the MLB in singles for three years running, but his crown might be in jeopardy.
Otto Lopez currently tops the majors with 99 hits and 71 singles, and the Miami Marlins shortstop has shown no signs of cooling off. Lopez is batting .348 this month with at least one single in seven of his last 10 contests.
San Francisco Giants starter Trevor McDonald is giving up nearly 8.5 hits per nine innings, which puts him in the Bottom 20 among all starters in the majors.
McDonald goes to his sinker more than 56% of the time, and that’s a pitch that Lopez is feasting on this season — he has 14 singles and a .468 average vs. the sinker.
I love the matchup for Lopez, but this line is already super chalky. I wouldn’t play it past -160.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, Marlins.TV
- Prop picks: 3-5, -2.53 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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