There is a monster 16-game MLB slate on Saturday, with plenty of MLB player props to choose from.
I have compiled my three best props for Saturday. As always, monitor the odds and available pricing, as the player prop market is constantly changing.
Here are my free MLB picks for Saturday, April 26.
Best MLB player props today
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Soler 1+ HR (+420) -
Cease o6.5 Ks (-112) -
Keller u4.5 Ks (-132)
MLB props for April 26
Jorge Soler 1+ home runs (+420 at FanDuel)
The afternoon portion of Saturday’s slate features the Minnesota Twins hosting the Los Angeles Angels. Right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson takes the mound for Minnesota, and he should serve as a good fade candidate.
Through four appearances this season, Woods Richardson is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. His underlying metrics are even worse, as he sports a 6.80 expected ERA (xERA) and ranks in the 18th percentile or lower in expected batting average (xBA), average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
There may not be a better candidate to take advantage of this matchup than Jorge Soler, who ranks in the 74th percentile in average exit velocity and 81st percentile in barrel rate. He boasts a .446 slugging percentage this season and a .400 slugging percentage through six plate appearances against Woods Richardson.
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (-112 at FanDuel)
Later in the evening, the San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays. Last night, right-hander Michael King carved up Tampa Bay with nine strikeouts in just five innings of work.
There should be optimism that right-hander Dylan Cease can do the same. This season, Cease ranks in the 74th percentile in chase rate and the 71st percentile in strikeout rate.
One bad outing is currently skewing his surface-level stats, and considering the strikeout success King had last night, Cease is in a prime position to collect his third straight quality start.
Mitch Keller Under 4.5 strikeouts (-132 at FanDuel)
One of the late games on Saturday’s slate features the Los Angeles Dodgers hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates. We will be fading Pittsburgh’s right-hander Mitch Keller.
Through five starts this season, Keller is 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. His analytics suggest further regression, as he owns a 5.77 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
Specifically, Keller should be faded in the prop market, as he ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate. He has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in four of his five starts this year.
Not intended for use in MA.
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