The bad news is the work week is back, but the good news is we have a solid slate of MLB games to work through.
I’ve gone through the full board to find my favorite MLB player props to bet on for Monday, August 18.
Best MLB player props today
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Flaherty o6.5 strikeouts (+110) -
Freeland u15.5 outs (-180) -
Devers 1+ RBI (+190)
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Our 3 best MLB player props for Monday, August 18
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Jack Flaherty Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at Caesars)
This shouldn’t be plus money. My projections see it around -105, and the Bat X projects Jack Flaherty to sneak over this number as well.
You’d expect both teams to be up for this series between the Houston Astros and Detroit Tigers, as the playoff implications are high.
While this is typically overblown from a betting perspective, it’s worth mentioning because Flaherty has had a tendency to be at his best during some of the higher-profile matchups of the season.
A nine-strikeout start against the New York Yankees and a seven-strikeout start against the Philadelphia Phillies tell this story quite well.
The matchup is nice, too. You get an Astros team on the road with a lineup that he’ll hold a platoon advantage over seven hitters. Flaherty has been immense in such spots this season with a strikeout rate in the Top 5 percentile.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
Kyle Freeland Under 15.5 outs (-180 at Caesars)
Grabbing some juice here on a number I feel should be 20 cents lower.
Kyle Freeland has gone Over this number just once in his last three starts, and it came against a St. Louis Cardinals team that has free-fallen as much as anyone in baseball recently.
This is a relatively simple outlook because it’s just a nightmare matchup for Freeland. His struggles come from giving up too many hard-hit balls, and the Dodgers are one of two teams in the sport that rank in the Top 5 of both hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
His strength is getting chase on pitches outside the zone... and the Dodgers chase pitches at one of the lowest rates in baseball. I expect Freeland to be run from this one quite early.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, COLR
Rafael Devers 1+ RBI (+190 at Caesars)
Rafael Devers hasn’t recorded an RBI for five consecutive games, which is a relatively lengthy streak based on what he’s done this season. Tonight, however, he has a really good matchup.
There’s an increased likelihood Devers can record one all by himself. Nestor Cortes takes the mound for the Padres with an extremely heavy fastball-cutter approach. Devers has absolutely destroyed both pitches this season, ranking in the Top 10 percentile across almost all batting metrics when facing the two pitches.
The hard-hit numbers are especially significant here, given all the struggles Cortes has had with the hard-hit ball this season.
While that makes me like the homer as well — especially considering the favorable dimensions for him — this number has slightly more value given his position in the batting order and the two hitters ahead of him who match up well against Cortes’ pitching arsenal.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCS-Bay Area, SDPA
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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