Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Value Lies With Arraez

Prop bet #1: Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 strikeouts

One of the most impressive aspects about this New York Yankees team is how the starting rotation has performed despite not having ace Gerrit Cole. Left-hander Carlos Rodon has been a part of that equation, pitching to a 3.08 ERA over his 13 starts this season but that may not be sustainable, particularly going into tonight’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals. 

The 31-year-old could be due for a little regression in the future. Rodon’s expected ERA is more than a run higher (4.24) while his opponent expected batting average is .242. Those rank in the 36th and 53rd percentiles, respectively. He's also still searching for his strikeout magic from 2021 and 2022. While still fine, his 23.7% strikeout rate is notably lower than the 34% it was in those two seasons. 

It feels like some nights Rodon has it and others he doesn’t. He’s coming off a nine-strikeout performance against the Twins but only had seven strikeouts total in his two previous starts combined. And he’s been much more comfortable at Yankee Stadium where his strikeouts per nine innings is 9.2 as opposed to 8.4 on the road.

Then there's the matchup with the Royals. K.C. is have a breakout season thanks in part to their pesky lineup, which has been particularly tough on southpaws. The Royals have the third-highest batting average and the 10th-highest wRC+ when facing left-handers this season. They also have the fourth-lowest K-rate at just 18.8%.

A tougher matchup on the road could mean not as long of an outing for Rodon and fewer strikeouts. 

Carlos Rodon prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 hits

If the Seattle Mariners return to the postseason this year, it will be because of their monster pitching staff. One through five, this is arguably the best rotation in baseball, and tonight’s starter Logan Gilbert has been a big part of that. The 27-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 3.44 expected ERA and a 0.98 WHIP this season. He also has 10 quality starts this season. 

Unfortunately, he takes the ball against the worst team in baseball tonight — the Chicago White Sox. The matchup pretty much zaps all of Gilbert’s betting value. Even to record a win is iffy thanks to the inconsistent Mariners’ bats. So, instead, let’s target a White Sox hitter who gets sick when he sees Gilbert on the mound. For me, that’s Luis Robert Jr.

The former All-Star can’t get out of Chicago soon enough. Injuries cost him nearly two months of action as he’s played just 12 games and when he has played, it hasn’t been pretty. He’s hitting just .188 this season and is just 3-for-20 with 10 strikeouts in five games since he’s returned to the lineup.

He's also just 1-for-8 with three strikeouts in his career vs. Gilbert that’s good for a .096 expected batting average and a .148 expected slugging. The poor guy just looks a little checked out at the moment, not that I blame him. Either way, that makes this matchup all the more difficult. Free Luis Robert but for now, let’s bet Under on his hits. 

Luis Robert Jr. prop: Under 0.5 hits (+135 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 hits

Sportsbooks have finally wised up when it comes to Fernando Tatis Jr.’s total bases prop, juicing the Over 1.5 to -115 for tonight’s series opener against the Oakland Athletics. Luckily, there’s another San Diego Padres hitter prop I like for this matchup.

With Tatis going nuclear during his current 15-game hitting streak, it can be easy to overlook how good Luis Arraez has been since coming over from the Marlins. The second baseman has returned to his hitting machine form. Arraez is now hitting .382 over his last 23 games played. The 27-year-old now ranks in the 98th percentile in expected batting for the season and tonight, he’ll dig in against A’s prospect Joey Estes.

The 22-year-old right-hander is making his sixth start of the season and is coming off a great performance against the Mariners, where he held them to just one hit in 6 1/3 innings pitched this season. Estes has a 4.67 ERA this season, but the thing is, most of his good innings have come in two starts against the Mariners. In his other three starts, he has a 7.47 ERA while surrendering a .274 batting average to opponents. 

With Arraez hitting .365 vs. right-handed pitching this season and tallying 2+ hits 13 times during this 23-game stretch, there's value in backing him to have another multi-hit game at this price.

Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+175 at DraftKings)