Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Morton Carves Up Putrid Mets

Prop bet #1: Hit man

It felt like the sky was falling when Miami Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez started the season 0-for-6 on Opening Day, but the Marlins hit machine looks like he’s getting back on track as he and his teammates open a series against the New York Yankees.

The back-to-back batting champ is coming off a year where he hit .354 and had some wondering if he could come close to the magical .400 mark early on. So, seeing his average sitting at .268 heading into this matchup can be a little jarring.

But those struggles mostly came in a season-opening series against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, it’s been the Arraez we’ve been used to. The Marlins hit machine has put up a .391 average over his last six games, which includes going 4-for-5 in Miami’s first win of the season on Sunday. 

Monday, Arraez will dig in against Yankees starter Nestor Cortes. The left hander is still looking a little rusty to start the season. Cortes has surrendered seven runs on 13 hits over 10 innings to start the season. 

That has me looking at Luis Arraez’s odds for his total bases, which is on the board at a tantalizing +160. So, why are we getting a number so good? 

Well, the lefty-lefty matchup for one. Arraez hasn’t had a ton of success against them so far this season, but that’s a small sample size. Last season, he hit .326 when facing southpaws. Another small sample size that I think holds a little more weight is the head-to-head matchup. Arraez is 2-for-4 in his career vs. Cortes with a double. 

The hit machine is starting to heat up. He’s gone Over 1.5 total bases in four of his last seven games and we’re getting a good number because of a perceived matchup edge for the starter. We’re not going to get prices like this for Arraez much longer. 

Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Cool, calm, and collected

Those hoping the New York Mets offense would bounce back following the dumpster fire that was 2023 have certainly been left wanting following the first 10 games of the 2024 campaign. That’s because the Mets lineup hasn’t just been bad, they’ve been fire this roster into the sun and start all over bad.

New York enters tonight’s matchup against the juggernaut Atlanta Braves with a 3-6 record and despite being in a division with the Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins, it’s the Mets who have scored the fewest runs at just 25. That’s seven less than the Nats. 

The Mets rank dead last in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers so far this season. Tonight, they’ll dig in against veteran starter Charlie Morton.

Morton got his season off to a solid start, shutting out the White Sox on three hits with six strikeouts and two walks over 5 2/3 innings pitched. And if you want to say, well, that’s the White Sox, look above. The Mets have been worse.

Not only that, but Morton has baffled N.Y. hitters for a long time. Current Mets hitters have just a .210 expected batting average, a .340 expected slugging percentage, and a 27.6% strikeout rate. The biggest offenders are Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil.

All this to say, Morton is set up to succeed in this matchup and that should mean limited walks, which isn’t always a given with the Braves righty. Morton can give up a few free passes because of the crazy movement on his curveball, but the Mets haven’t been patient against him in the past and have just an 8% walk rate against him. 

With Charlie Morton’s odds surrounding his walk prop sitting at 2.5, this looks like a great spot to jump on the Under.

Charlie Morton prop: Under 2.5 walks (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Zac attack

When you see that Kyle Freeland is facing off against the Arizona Diamondbacks you just want to fade him as many ways as possible. Unfortunately, so does everybody else and there is little to no betting value when it comes to the embattled Colorado Rockies starters.

So, let’s get a little creative with our Freeland fade today. 

Right off the bat, the hopes of Freeland finding his good stuff once again have been fleeting following two of the ugliest starts you can imagine. The left hander opened his 2024 campaign against this same D-backs team on Mar. 28 and it did not go well.

Arizona thumped Freeland to the tune of 10 earned runs on 10 hits over just 2 1/3 innings of work, in what turned out to be a 16-1 shellacking on Opening Day. Eight of the nine Diamondbacks players starting lineup recorded two or more total bases.

Freeland followed that up by surrendering seven runs on nine hits over 3 1/3 in a matchup against the Chicago Cubs. So, yeah... the numbers aren’t so pretty. That works out to a 13.92 expected ERA and a .424 opponent expected batting average.

Freeland won’t be happy to see the D-backs again so soon. As a team, they have a .319 xBA and a .544 expected slugging percentage vs. the Rockies’ southpaw. 

This means there should be plenty of support from Arizona's offense which is why I'm backing Zac Gallen's odds. The D-backs right hander has picked up right where he left off last season. He's allowed just one run on six hits while striking out nine over his first 11 innings of work this season. That includes limiting the Rockies to one run on three hits over five innings.

Now, I looked at Gallen’s Under 2.5 earned runs in this matchup, but the Rockies generally hit a little better at Coors Field, so instead I like Gallen to record the win at +125. Gallen has earned a win in both of those starts and I like him to make it a perfect 3-for-3 tonight.

Zac Gallen prop: To record the win (+125 at bet365)