Fresh off a series win over the Jays in Toronto, the Padres will travel to Detroit in an effort to make it two straight against the Tigers. Will Seth Lugo help in their quest for a miraculous playoff berth, or will he let them down on the road?
Let’s break down Padres vs. Tigers in our MLB picks and predictions for July 21.
Padres vs Tigers odds
Padres vs Tigers predictions
The Padres’ bats have been inconsistent over the last few weeks, but they’ve sure figured out a way to hit the ball with quality. San Diego is second in hard-hit rate over the last 30 days at a whopping 43.6%, and as a result, the club is currently seventh in wRC+.
In that time, the Padres have done an excellent job of walking, getting on via the free pass at an 11.4% clip, which ranks first in the league. They’ve also cut back on the strikeouts, ending plate appearances with a punchout just 20.2% of the time. While this team has been suspect in the field at times and hasn’t hit well all season, it’s finally coming together.
As a result, I see a ton of value in taking the Padres to win this one on the road.
Sure, Seth Lugo’s peripherals aren’t the best. He’s given up a lot of hard-hit balls and barrels. But the Tigers are just 26th in wRC+ for the last 30 days with a very low 7.2% walk rate and a 24.3% strikeout rate. They won’t have enough discipline to get this done against a pitcher who has been average this year, at worst.
My best bet: Padres moneyline (-140 at DraftKings)
Padres vs Tigers same-game parlay
Padres moneyline
Tatis 2+ Total Bases
Kim 2+ Total Bases
The Padres are fourth in the league against the slider, which is why I love this offense even more in this matchup. Reese Olson is primarily a junkballer, featuring a slider on the majority of his offerings. This team should be able to tee off with the way they’re running.
With that, there is no better slider hitter than Fernando Tatis, Jr. While he’s -310 to get a hit in this one, his total bases look a lot more appealing to me. We will toss him and his 2.11 run value per 100 sliders in there as the second leg.
Ha-Seong Kim is also one of the better Padres against sliders, ranking inside the Top 4 in this lineup, and I’ll put his total bases in there as well. He has 11 hits in his last 11 games, including four doubles and two home runs, making him an excellent choice here.
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Padres vs Tigers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Based on my analysis above, I believe the San Diego moneyline is the way to go in this one.
Unfortunately for the Padres here, I have to say if there’s one way I’m leaning on the total, it’s towards the Over. We’ve touched on how great the San Diego bats have been lately, and we’ve also noted that this team absolutely mashes against sliders. That should put Olson in some serious danger and create the possibility of an offensive explosion here.
The reason I used the word “unfortunately” is that I can’t see Lugo dominating in this game. The Tigers have plenty of power bats, and this pitcher has repeatedly gotten burned by contact.
Lugo’s strikeout rate isn’t nearly high enough to save him and his .269 xBA. Detroit has scored at least three runs in its last four games and broke out for 10 against the Royals in its last series. The Over is the play if you want a side on the total.
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Trend to know
The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 73 games (+7.65 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Tigers
Padres vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Friday, July 21, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV + |
Starting pitchers
Seth Lugo (3-4, 3.78 ERA): The former Mets righty is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, allowing five runs on seven hits against the Phillies last week. It followed a solid June where he owned a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings.
Reese Olson (1-3, 3.96 ERA): The 23-year-old rookie has been all over the place this season. He had a 4.78 ERA as a starter before finding some success in the bullpen, and in his return to the rotation last time out allowed just two runs on six hits over 5 1/3 innings against the Mariners.
