Yesterday was a bounce-back day with a 2-1 finish, and I'm looking to end the week and go into the Canadian long weekend with some money in my pockets.
It’s a full slate with a lot of wind blowing in. These are my three favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Friday, August 1.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for August 1
Horton o15.5 outs (-110)
Criswell o2.5 Ks (+100)
DeSclafani u3.5 Ks (+130)
Orioles vs Cubs
The angle: Home cooking for Horton.
The move: Cade Horton Over 15.5 outs recorded (-110 at bet365)
The Wrigley winds are blowing in at 14 miles per hour this afternoon, and Cade Horton has been in great form ahead of his matchup with the visiting Orioles.
The rookie has gone Over this number three of his last four starts. Even on an 85-90-pitch count, he can pitch into the sixth today at home, where he has gone 4-1 to the Over on this number across his last five starts.
The Orioles had the bats going in the Toronto series, but it was 110 degrees and the ball was flying at Camden. The pitching setting is in Horton’s favor and I’d play this Over to -125.
Astros vs Red Sox
The angle: Criswell takes advantage of longer-than-expected leash.
The move: Cooper Criswell Over 2.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
This one is going to move. THE BAT has Cooper Criswell projected for a near-full leash at 86 pitches and 3.44 Ks today vs. a navigable offense.
He just got the promotion from Triple-A, where he has been going 15 outs consistently and has 55 Ks over 53-plus innings. That K/inning rate might not play with the big club, but he does have 104 Ks in 137 big-league innings entering this year.
It’s a low-risk price with a small total and a pitcher who could go 15 outs.
Diamondbacks vs Athletics
The angle: DeSclafani faces a short leash at a hitter's paradise.
The move: Anthony DeSclafani Under 3.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)
Sacramento is a great place to hit today, which isn’t great news for Anthony DeSclafani, who has been a bulk-reliever across his last three games. He has not gone more than 12 outs in any of those games and he lasted just 50 pitches in his last outing.
His one start this year was 12 outs on 60 pitches. He does have a great K matchup vs. the Athletics, but the road setting is not great and he might only throw 50-60 pitches again today.
THE BAT projects for 3.76 Ks, so around a 46-48% winner that I’d play to +110. He is not a K/inning guy over his 10-year career and four innings and three punchouts is a good outcome.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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