We’ve got a bunch of great series starting this weekend, and I’ve searched the board for the best MLB player props on the market.
I’ll break them down, with two pitchers leading the way in my MLB picks for Friday, August 1.
Best MLB player props today
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Gilbert to record a win (+110) -
Heaney o3.5 Ks (-120) -
Castellanos 1+ HR (+600)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Friday, August 1
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Logan Gilbert to record a win (+110 at bet365)
Logan Gilbert has owned the Texas Rangers, and I don’t expect that to change tonight.
Wading too much in historical matchup trends can sometimes be a fool’s errand in baseball — perhaps more than any sport — but the overwhelming data at least deserves mention. Only one Rangers player in the lineup has an above-average batting average against Gilbert in his career, and several with 20 plate appearances or more are in the .100s against him.
It makes sense, too.
Gilbert has turned into an elite strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout rate and whiff rate that both put him in the Top 5% of the sport. With the likes of Adolis Garcia, Rowdy Tellez, Wyatt Langford, and Joc Pederson, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the lineup.
I expect Gilbert to do enough to put himself in position to grab the win tonight as the Mariners’ bats attack a below-average pitcher in Jack Leiter.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, RSNW
Andrew Heaney Over 3.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
In full disclosure, I’d feel obligated to take almost any starting pitcher to eclipse 3.5 strikeouts against the 2025 Colorado Rockies.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you likely know the story — they lead the league easily in strikeouts, with several other whiff metrics to back that up. However, Andrew Heaney should be in line for positive regression to end the season on the strikeout front.
The BatX projects him for 3.7 strikeouts, and I’m a bit higher. The 1.18 deviation between Heaney’s 6.56 K/9 and his 7.74 estimated true talent K/9 means he’s been one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball. We should see that correct itself down the stretch.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNP, ROCKIES.tv
Nick Castellanos to hit a home run (+600 at FanDuel)
In what may be somewhat of a surprising statistic to many, Jack Flaherty is in the Top 10 in baseball in homers allowed per nine innings. With that in mind, my attention was immediately drawn to the power of the Philly lineup tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
Considering price and matchup, I found that Nick Castellanos was the best bet. Castellanos' strengths align well against Flaherty’s pitch mix — and that’s not much of a surprise when you see his career numbers against him, which include one homer.
The majority of the Phillies’ lineup hits the fastball well, but a key separating metric for Casty is what he does against the knuckle curve — the second primary pitch for Flaherty. He’ll enter this game with some of the best hard-hit rates in the majors against the pitch.
I’ll take this at +600.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FDSNDET, NBCSP
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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