Padres vs Phillies NLCS Game 3 Picks and Predictions: Musgrove Makes the Most of the Moment

Joe Musgrove has bested the Phillies for the most part, and given his current form, needs to be backed on the mound tonight. See why we're putting our faith in the star Padres hurler with our best MLB picks for Game 3 of the NLCS.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 21, 2022 • 16:29 ET • 4 min read

Game 3 of the NLCS runs Friday night between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. 

San Diego leveled the series with an 8-5 Wednesday night victory at Petco Park. The NLCS shifts to Citizens Bank Park for Friday night's encounter.

Who will inch closer to a spot in the 2022 World Series? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies on October 21. Also, take a deeper dive with our Padres vs. Phillies trends and insights courtesy of EV Analytics.

Padres vs Phillies best odds

Padres vs Phillies picks and predictions

Joe Musgrove has been throwing solid ball down the stretch.

Musgrove has been money during the Padres’ playoff run, pitching seven scoreless frames against the Mets in NY during the NLWC round, and followed that up with a solid NLDS home victory over the Dodgers.

The Padres hurler has allowed two earned runs over 13 playoff innings. He’s scattered seven hits and struck out 13 hitters in these playoffs, and he has a tasty matchup against the Phillies Friday.

Musgrove has held Philadelphia to a .211/.242/.337/.579 slash line with 36 strikeouts and three home runs over 95 at-bats. The Phillies touched Musgrove for six earned runs and a pair of bombs at Petco way back in June, but this is a different Padres team, and I expect the righty to pitch a gem on Friday night.

The Phillies' offense ranks ninth in the game against righties — with a 22% strikeout rate alongside a fifth-best ISO — but ranks 12th in wRC+. They have big bats but sometimes struggle manufacturing runs.

Ranger Suarez was pulled after three innings in his only playoff appearance of the season, surrendering one earned run with five walks and five whiffs in what turned out to be an away loss to the Atlanta Braves. 

This collection of Padres bats hasn’t been very productive over their careers vs. Suarez, posting a .170/.235/.277/.512 slash line with one round-tripper and 10 strikeouts over 47 at-bats against the Phillies lefty.

This season, San Diego ranked 18th against left-handed pitching. They struck out in 20% of their at-bats with a 23rd-ranked ISO, and their 15th-best wRC+ of 103 suggests they also have difficulties building runs against southpaws.

Bullpens matter in the MLB playoffs, and San Diego has the edge with the fourth-best team ERA (2.05) during the playoffs. Conversely, the Phillies ‘pen has had issues this postseason, posting a 4.00 ERA, and its 12 earned runs allowed are last among active playoff clubs.

Outside of that rough six-inning patch earlier this season, Musgrove has dominated this collection of Phillies bats, and we expect that trend to continue Friday as he’s in elite form at present,

Suarez has a short leash during the postseason but pitched well against San Diego this season. Any sign of trouble Friday will likely end his night, and turning things over to a struggling bullpen will suit the Padres just fine.

My best bet: Padres moneyline (-107 at Pinnacle)

Best Padres vs Phillies bonuses

Looking to bet on some MLB action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:

A) Get a 25% profit boost on any player's hit total for tonight's game at DraftKings! Opt in Now

B) New users at DraftKings can get a deposit bonus up to $1,000! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2022.

Padres vs Phillies NLCS odds

Teams Odds to win series
Steelers San Diego Padres -110
Browns Philadelphia Phillies -110

Padres vs Phillies moneyline analysis

I thought about picking the Padres first five moneyline (MLB odds of -115) as my best bet, and that’s obviously in play. Musgrove has been exceptional during the playoffs and has a solid history against this collection of Phillies bats, while Suarez has command issues, meaning I’ll likely make that bet too.

Musgrove has thrown over 100 pitches nine times and is coming off a 101-pitch outing against the Dodgers. Manager Bob Melvin trusts his hurler, and that’s important when considering an F5 wager.

Conversely, Suarez has given 16 free passes with 21 strikeouts over his previous 28.2 frames,  which is a bit north of his 3.36 BB/9 frames allowed this season. The southpaw has thrown 100 pitches or more in five of his 29 starts, and manager Rob Thompson won’t suffer long with Suarez.

Padres closer Josh Hader struggled for a good part of the season, but he’s thrown shutout ball over his past 15 appearances. Meanwhile, Phillies stopper Zach Eflin has allowed four earned runs over his four playoff appearances. 

San Diego was 26-20-0 as the away favorite, and Philadelphia was 9-7-0 as the home underdog. 

Padres vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 7.5 and will probably remain until Las Vegas closes the game.

Musgrove has left a trail of goose eggs down the stretch. The Dodgers snapped a personal 20 consecutive scoreless innings streak, but he’s up against a Phillies offense that battered him for six earned runs in their only meeting this season.

Suarez is all over the place. He threw 16 scoreless frames over July, so the stuff is there. Since then, the southpaw has had mixed results and command issues, and it's hard to figure out how he’ll perform from one day to the next.

The Over is 24-21-0 when the Padres are away favorites, and is 7-8-1 when the Phillies are favored at home. 

I’m leaning Over in this one based on Suarez’s recent form and the Phillies' shakier bullpen for this Friday's NLCS matchup. 

Padres vs Phillies trend to know

The Padres are 12-3 in their last 15 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Phillies

Padres vs Phillies game info

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Date: Friday, October 21, 2022
First pitch: 7:37 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers

Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA): He's allowed three earned runs with 32 strikeouts over his past 29 frames. He throws a solid 3.27 xERA with a 3.47 xFIP, and his 3.22 away xFIP suggests the road has been his friend this season. 

Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA): Suarez has had a difficult time leading to Friday’s contest, allowing 10 earned runs with 20 punchouts over his last 21 innings. The Phillies southpaw offers a 3.78 xERA alongside a 3.82 xFIP but his 4.10 home xFIP might indicate some regression is due for Suarez.                                                                                              

Padres vs Phillies latest injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Padres vs Phillies weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Pages related to this topic

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo