Padres vs Giants Picks and Predictions: San Fran Staves Off San Diego Sweep

After losing two tight contests against the visiting Padres, the Giants will send Alex Wood to the hill as they look to avoid the series sweep. With a better outing from the lineup, we're backing them to do just that — read more in our MLB picks below.

Last Updated: May 22, 2022 10:51 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Thairo Estrada San Francisco Giants MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants will wrap up their three-game series at Oracle Park on Sunday afternoon. 

The Padres are attempting to break out the brooms after taking the first two games of this series, but each victory was by the smallest of margins.

Can the Giants salvage a win in the Sunday finale? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Giants on Sunday, May 22.

Padres vs Giants odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened as consensus -141 favorites, but action on the Padres has made that line drop about five cents at the majority of sportsbooks. The total was unveiled at 8, but totals of 7.5 are now dominating the market. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Giants predictions

Picks made on 5/22/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Padres vs Giants game info

Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
Date: Saturday, May 22, 2022
First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
TV: NBCS-BAY, Bally Sports

Padres vs Giants betting preview

Starting pitchers

MacKenzie Gore (2-1, 2.17 ERA): MacKenzie Gore gets back into the starting groove after pitching three shutout innings in relief of Mike Clevinger on Tuesday night. Gore went at least five innings in each of his first five starts of 2022, surrendering only seven earned runs. He sports 32 strikeouts and only nine walks through 29 frames.

Alex Wood (3-2, 3.93 ERA)It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for the Giants’ Alex Wood. The 31-year-old southpaw has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his first seven outings but has a 6.75 ERA in his other three appearances. Wood likely won’t go far in this one, as he’s averaged just 4.9 innings per start in 2022.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Matt Beaty LF (Out), Pierce Johnson RP (Out).
Giants: Brandon Belt 1B (Questionable), Curt Casali C (Questionable), Jake McGee RP (Out), LaMonte Wade Jr. LF (Out), Anthony DeSclafani SP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 Sunday games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants

Padres vs Giants picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Bettors should back the Giants to take the wind out of the Padres’ sails Sunday afternoon.

San Francisco starter Alex Wood has not been the most consistent pitcher on the staff, but he’s had legitimate excuses for some of his subpar outings. 

Wood allowed three runs in only 4 1-3 innings against the Colorado Rockies when last seen on Monday, but that was the second time he was facing that lineup in six days – they knew what to look for, much like when a batter faces a starter for the third or fourth time in a game.

It was a similar story when Wood took on the Washington Nationals on April 29 and coughed up five runs in five innings – he faced that team just six days earlier. 

Though San Diego has already seen Wood once in 2022, it occurred back on April 11. The North Carolina native has had plenty of time to round into midseason form since that initial outing of the campaign. 

Expect the southpaw to keep the left-handed bat of Eric Hosmer in check – the Friars' first baseman is 0-for-6 lifetime against Wood and is currently mired in a massive slump (2-for-25) at the dish. 

The Giants’ lineup has never encountered Padres starter MacKenzie Gore before, but they’re plenty capable of doing damage nonetheless. This offense – second in the majors by runs per game – is also ninth in OPS against lefties (.714) in 2022. 

Gore will encounter threats up and down the San Francisco order. Thairo Estrada has multiple hits in each of his last four starts, and Darin Ruf has at least two hits in three of his last four outings. The latter has three homers against southpaws this season. 

Prediction: Giants moneyline (-130 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Unreliable middle relievers and some trustworthy trends combine to make the Over an appealing play, not to mention the combination of two top-notch offenses. 

The Padres are 19th in the majors in bullpen ERA this year, and that’s with the formidable Taylor Rogers (16 saves) serving as the closer. Take away his 18 1-3 innings with only one earned run allowed, and their collective ERA jumps from 3.87 to 4.41. 

The Giants are just a hair better than San Diego with a 3.82 reliever ERA this season, 18th in baseball. Zack Littel and Jose Alvarez – both carrying an ERA above 9.00 in May – have been used sparingly in this series by manager Gabe Kapler, and he’s probably hoping he doesn’t have to employ either of them on Sunday. 

Diving into the trends, these teams have gone above the total in 14 of their last 20 meetings. The Over is 11-5 in the Padres’ last 16 road games, and 7-2 in the Giants’ last nine games against NL West opponents.

Prediction: Over 7.5 (-113 at Unibet)

Best bet

A well-balanced offense like San Francisco’s can’t be kept down for long, and as long as this unit builds an early lead, they should be in the driver’s seat in the later innings. 

We’ve discussed the hot streaks of Estrada and Ruf, but have yet to touch on the consistency of outfielders Mike Yastrzemski and Luis Gonzalez the month. The former batting .320 in May with two homers and 10 RBI isn’t all that surprising, but the latter has come from nowhere to hit .372 this month with a four-bagger and nine RBI. 

The Giants boast enough reliable arms to protect any lead they might earn. Dominic Leone struck out the side on Saturday, John Brebbia has 14 scoreless appearances in 17 tries, and closer Camilo Doval has seven saves on the season.

Trend bettors should note that the Padres are 7-15 in their last 22 road games against teams with winning records, and 33-67 in their last 100 road games against left-handed starters. The Giants are 49-21 in their last 70 games against NL West opponents. 

PickGiants moneyline (-130 at BetRivers)

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