Padres vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Weathers Builds Off Encouraging Start

The first-place Los Angeles Dodgers play host to the third-place San Diego Padres in an NL West affair on Sunday.

This contest is the third and final matchup of this series, with Los Angeles claiming each of the first two games.

Will the Dodgers defend their home diamond once again, or can the Padres end their four-game skid? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Dodgers on Sunday, May 14.

Padres vs Dodgers odds

Padres vs Dodgers predictions

Slated to take the mound for the San Diego Padres is left-hander Ryan Weathers. After getting called back up from the minors this week, Weathers will look to deliver another strong performance.

Through five appearances on the mound for San Diego this season, the left-hander is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We are going to back Weathers to come out and deliver another strong outing.

Specifically, we are going to back the left-hander to go Over his strikeout prop in this matchup. Weathers boasts a three-pitch arsenal, utilizing his four-seam fastball to set up his changeup and sweeper.

After racking up five strikeouts over six innings in his last start against the Cubs, he should be able to get the punchout working once again in this contest. While the Los Angeles Dodgers boast one of the most stacked lineups in baseball, it is susceptible to punchouts.

This season, the Dodgers rank just 23rd in the league in strikeout rate. This should not be surprising given that the middle of their lineup consists of strikeout-prone hitters like J.D. Martinez, Max Muncy, and James Outman.

These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Weathers. Through 33 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current Los Angeles roster possesses a 24.2 K%.

My best bet: Ryan Weathers Over 3.5 strikeouts (+145 at bet365)

Padres vs Dodgers moneyline analysis

I would lean toward the Padres’ moneyline in this contest, but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. San Diego is a much stronger team than its 19-21 record suggests and catching them around the +145 mark is not a bad value play.

However, it will take more than that to fade the Dodgers on their home diamond. After a sluggish start to the campaign, Los Angeles is 9-2 over its past 10 games.

This season, the Dodgers rank in the Top 5 in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs. While San Diego ranks nowhere near those marks, this lineup is far more talented than the results it puts up, and positive regression will hit sooner rather than later.

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis

I would also lean towards the Under in this contest but do not feel confident one way or the other. For Los Angeles, right-hander Tony Gonsolin is slated to take the mound.

Through three starts this season, Gonsolin is 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also incredibly strong, ranking in the 57th percentile or higher in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate.

Meanwhile, Weathers also ranks in the 53rd percentile or higher in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate. While both pitchers are strong, both lineups are even better, so I am staying away from the total.

Padres vs Dodgers game info

Starting pitchers

Ryan Weathers (1-1, 2.50 ERA): After spending some time in Triple-A, Weathers is back up with the big club and is slated to get the nod in this matchup. Bouncing between the bullpen and rotation, Weathers is a versatile pitcher who put together a strong performance in his latest start against the Cubs. In that matchup, he allowed two runs on six hits through six innings pitched while striking out five.

Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.93 ERA): Gonsolin missed the first month of the season with an ankle injury, but picked up right where he left off last season. Consistently one of the more under-discussed pitchers in baseball, the right-hander is now 26-7 in his career with a commanding 2.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Boasting a four-pitch arsenal, Gonsolin’s split finger is his true bread-and-butter and is one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Padres are 14-40 in the last 54 meetings in Los Angeles. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers

Weather

Pages related to this topic