It's a full slate of baseball today with lots of angles to bet on pitcher and MLB player props, thanks to a lot of getaway spots, some doubleheaders, and just some poor form in general.
Merrill Kelly has the home splits and a tired bullpen working in his favor as he looks to clear a small strikeout total. Seth Lugo gets a West Coast team in a getaway spot that has struck out nearly 30% of the time since the break. And Aaron Nola? He should be at the top of everyone's fade list today with the Dodgers bringing a dangerous lineup to town.
Let's dive in with strikeout props, pitcher predictions, and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 22.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Merrill Kelly |
Over 3.5 strikeouts | -113 |
 Seth Lugo |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | -106 |
 Aaron Nola |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -117 |
Strikeout prop: Merrill Kelly Over 3.5 strikeouts (-113)
I think Merrill Kelly is one of the worst starters in baseball, but this is simply too small a strikeout total at home against a getaway Athletics lineup, especially with the market moving toward the Over.
Kelly is one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball, but his strikeout numbers at home have been much better than on the road. He has 32 strikeouts over 37 home innings compared to just 30 punchouts in 61 road frames. He is also 6-1 to the Over on this prop at home this season and has recorded at least three strikeouts in each of his seven home starts.
The Athletics are heading to Minnesota to open a series Friday, so there's a chance this turns into a mail-in game. They also struck out five times in five innings against MLB debutant Kohl Drake yesterday, who doesn't project as a high-strikeout pitcher.
THE BAT projects Kelly for 4.03 strikeouts, making the fair price closer to -130/-135.
- Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCSCA
Strikeout prop: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-106)
This is another pitcher who gets hit hard, but his home splits are in his favor, and he might catch a low-motivated Giants lineup today.
San Francisco is wrapping up a two-series road trip with the All-Star break in the middle and heads home from Kansas City to start a series against the Angels on Friday. That makes this an interleague getaway spot, and the Giants have already dropped four straight games while scoring just 11 runs during the losing streak. Seth Lugo gets this lineup at the best possible time.
Since the break, this lineup owns a 29.3% K rate, which ranks fifth-highest in baseball.
THE BAT projects 4.97 strikeouts on 92 pitches, putting the fair price around -125/-130. Six innings and five strikeouts is a realistic outlook.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, NBCS BA
Earned runs allowed prop: Aaron Nola Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-117)
Aaron Nola might be the biggest pitcher fade on the board, and his Over 2.5 earned run prop is moving for good reason. His numbers fell off a cliff last year, but this season is showing that it wasn't just a one-year blip.
The walks are up, and his HR/9 has climbed from 1.35 two seasons ago to 2.01 this year, which is the second-highest mark among qualified starters. He's also giving up more fly balls than ever with a 39.8% groundball rate, and hitters are barreling him on more than 25% of swings, ranking in the Bottom 20 among starters.
Put it all together, and you get a pitcher who has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last six starts and is coming off an outing where he surrendered three more. The Dodgers have a great get-right spot today, and there are plenty of bats in that lineup with a ton of history against Nola.
THE BAT projects Nola for 3.3 earned runs allowed, the fourth-highest mark among starters on today's slate, with a fair price of -155. However, because he isn't expected to work deep, the Dodgers F5 team total Over 2.5 is a great pivot if the price moves past -125.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 2-4 -2.1 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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