The best in the National League face off vs. the worst in the NL for a second straight night as Tony Gonsolin and the Los Angeles Dodgers take on Jake Irvin and the Washington Nationals. L.A. sits as a heavy -320 favorite with a total sitting at 9.0.
With bettors not afraid to hit the heavily juiced Dodgers, is fading Irvin at -110 a better route than a derivative market on the home side? Find out all that and more in my MLB picks for the Nationals vs. Dodgers.
Nationals vs Dodgers odds
Nationals vs Dodgers predictions
Irvin comes into tonight’s matchup having to face the toughest lineup in the National League and some of the best hitting conditions in baseball with 14-mph winds blowing straight out at Dodger Stadium. Compounding Irvin’s trouble is also a lineup that sits outside the Top 10 in K-rate over the last two seasons.
The Dodgers can chase Irvin early and THE BAT is projecting just 69 pitches, 11.5 outs, and 2.50 strikeouts for the Washington starter. With bet365’s Under 3.5 Ks at -110 implying roughly 3.65 strikeouts, that’s over a full punchout of expected value or a 33% difference between the projected and implied total.
Irvin wasn’t even a K/inning pitcher at Triple A and has serious command issues. The weather is a serious factor working against him and this lineup can exploit his weakness in the home run department. Getting four strikeouts is going to be very improbable today, especially for a pitcher who gets swinging strikes at a 5% rate.
My best bet: Jake Irvin Under 3.5 strikeouts (-110)
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Nationals vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
The Dodgers closed as -250 home favorites last night in the series opener with high-end L.A. prospect Bobby Miller opposing Trevor Williams. Tonight, bettors get Tony Gonsolin who has given up just 16 hits over 29+ innings this year.
As of noon today, Los Angeles has shortened up nearly 30 points across the board and sits as -320 home favorites, which is a warranted 70-point adjustment tonight based on the pitching matchup compared to yesterday's game.
I’m not running out to get the Dodgers on the ML, but this is a bad matchup for one of the worst-hitting offenses in baseball as Gonsolin has made six starts this year and has allowed more than three hits just once. Batters are hitting just .152 vs. the right hander with a .535 OPS.
Considering Washington has launched the fewest home runs in the National League and likely needs to string hits together to plate runs tonight, the prospects of the visitors hitting three or more runs tonight is slim.
The L.A. offense also has a great matchup vs. rookie Jake Irvin. He has a 19:16 K/BB over 22 innings and also has to deal with 14 mph winds blowing out at Dodger Stadium. On top of that, the Dodgers are rated as the No. 1 offense in the NL per WAR and will likely get middle-of-the-order hitter Max Muncy back in the lineup, which could drive the ML movement even further.
This is about as bad a matchup can be for the Nationals and the reason bettors had no issue finding value in the -300 ML. L/A/ wins this game eight times out of 10 which is an implied odd of -400, and the Dodgers could actually close shorter than -320.
Nationals vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
Bettors should likely hit the Dodgers’ team total Over 5.5 instead of the full game Over 9.0 as projecting offense from the Nats tonight will be tough.
The home side has an elite matchup and might be able to dig into the Washington bullpen early as Irvin hasn’t touched 80 pitches in back-to-back starts. The Nats’ bullpen ranks in the Bottom 10 in WAR and ERA, and its middle relievers are a group of pitchers I wouldn’t want to see if I was on the Under.
Possibly the best reason for the Over today which opened at 8.5 and moved to 9, is the weather. Dodger Stadium will be one of the best hitter’s parks on the slate thanks to mid-60 temps and 14 mph winds blowing out to center.
Irvin is a neutral pitcher in terms of groundball rates, but his high FB/HR ratio does not bode well today in a park that is favoring the longball especially when the Dodgers have the highest flyball rate (41.3%) of any team in baseball at home. L.A. is going to put up some crooked numbers and could see some poor mop-up relievers if it gets one-sided early.
Nationals vs Dodgers game info
|Location:||Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA|
|Date:||Tuesday, May 30, 2023|
|First pitch:||10:10 p.m. ET|
|TV:||MSN2, SportsNet LA|
Jake Irvin (1-2, 5.32 ERA): Irvin will be making his sixth start of his MLB career, leaving Triple A this season with a 5.64 ERA and having a near-5.00 ERA in Double A a season ago. He deals with serious command issues and the balls he does allow to go in the air leave the park at a near-13% rate. THE BAT is projecting 69 pitches, 11.5 outs, 2.5 strikeouts, and 2.81 earned runs.
Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 1.82 ERA): Gonsolin has picked up where he left off a season ago and has become the ace of the rotation thanks to some injuries. The righty has a sub-2.00 and has faced plenty of the better offenses in baseball. His leash might not be too long, but he is not giving up hits this year and has allowed just 16 hits over 29.2 innings pitched this season. L.A. is 3-3 SU in his six starts this season. THE BAT is projecting 93 pitches, 17.3 outs, 4.72 strikeouts, and 2.44 earned runs.
Trend to know
The Nationals are 16-35 in the last 51 meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs Dodgers