The Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs wrap up their four-game series at Wrigley Field on Thursday afternoon.
The Nats held on for a 4-3 win last night and MLB betting lines opened with them as +115 underdogs for today's contest.
Here are our best free Nationals vs. Cubs picks and predictions for Thursday, May 20, with the first pitch scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET.
Nationals vs Cubs game info
• Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Date: Thursday, May 20, 2021
• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• TV: MASN, MSN
Nationals vs Cubs odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline has seen very modest movement, with TwinSpires opening Chicago -127, shifting to -130 and back to -127, where the price sits at 12:30 p.m. ET. The Cubs are attracting 70 percent of tickets and 62 percent of money. The total is stable at 10.5, with ticket count and money both in the 2/1 range on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNationals vs Cubs betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Ross (2-3, 5.80 ERA): The 27-year-old sat out last season and pitched to a 5.48 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP in 2019 when he made nine starts and came on in relief on 18 occasions.
Ross has been sharp in five of his seven starts this season. However, he was absolutely destroyed in his other two appearances, including last Saturday against Arizona, when he surrendered eight earned runs in four innings.
Trevor Williams (2-2, 6.27 ERA): The former Pirate has struggled since joining up with his former NL Central opponents, pitching to a 6.27 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP through eight starts with Chicago.
In his last outing, the 29-year-old was pulled after just two innings after surrendering three runs in Detroit.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: None.
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo 1B (Questionable), James Marisnick CF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 17-6-2 in Nationals' last 25 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Cubs.
Moneyline pick
The Cubs lost 4-3 to Washington last night but that's not really surprising, considering that they were going up against Nats ace Max Scherzer. The Cubs are still eighth in the majors with 4.6 runs per game, with the number bumping up to 5.12 at home.
The Nats exploded for 17 runs against the Diamondbacks last Friday, but they've generally been struggling at the dish. They've been limited to three runs or fewer in 11 of their last 16 games and are 25th in the majors with 3.89 runs per game on the year.
While Cubs starter Trevor Williams is subpar, he has looked better at Wrigley Field where he has a 3.15 ERA with an opponent batting average of .213 in 20 innings across four starts.
The Cubs also have a reliable bullpen, with their relievers ranking fifth in the majors with an ERA of 3.32.
The Nats will send Joe Ross to the mound for this game, and the young right-hander has been very inconsistent. Washington has a tough time winning whenever Scherzer doesn't start. The Nats are 3-9 in their last 12 games with a starter other than Mad Max, and are 1-5 in Ross' previous six starts.
With Washington 2-5 in its last seven games on the road and Chicago 7-2 in its previous nine contests at home, back the slim home faves.
PREDICTION: ML Chicago Cubs (-125)
Over/Under pick
Both Williams and Ross have been far from reliable as their most recent starts and season stats indicate. But going back to a bigger sample size, things haven't been much better.
Williams pitched to a 5.69 ERA with a WHIP of 1.51 across 45 starts since the beginning of the 2019 season. And Ross has a 5.60 ERA with a 1.59 WHIP through 99 2-3 innings over the same time frame.
The Nationals might lag near the bottom of the majors when it comes to scoring but, led by Juan Soto and Trea Turner, they have some strong metrics.
Washington ranks seventh in the majors in OPS in away contests (.729), which isn't too far behind the Cubs' OPS of .750 at home.
The Nats are also fourth in the majors in hard-hit rate, while the Cubs rank ninth. Combine that tendency to smash the ball with a pair of starters with ugly ERAs and a 12 mph wind blowing out towards the outfield in Wrigley Field and you have all the ingredients for a high-scoring game.
PREDICTION: Over 10 (-110)
Nationals vs Cubs betting card
- ML Chicago Cubs (-125)
- Over 10 (-110)
Picks made on 5/20/2021 at 9 a.m. ET
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