The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies will play the rubber match of their three-game set when they face off tonight at Citizens Bank Ball Park.
The series finale has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel as the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara toes the rubber against the Phillies’ Vince Velasquez. But is the total of 8 too good to be true for baseball bettors?
Check out our MLB free picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Mets on Wednesday, April 28, with first pitch scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET.
Marlins vs Phillies game info
• Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Thursday, May 20, 2021
• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: MLB Network
Marlins vs Phillies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonPhiladelphia opened -130 at FanDuel, dipped as low as -112, rebounded to -136 and is -132 at first pitch. The Phillies are taking 65 percent of bets and 71 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total moved from 8 to 7.5 a couple of times and is now 8 flat (-110), with 52 percent of bets on the Under and 53 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMarlins vs Phillies betting preview
Starting pitchers
Sandy Alcantara (1-3, 4.06 ERA): Alcantara is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, but don’t be surprised if the right-hander bounces back quickly. Prior to getting torched by the Dodgers, Alcantara had pitched to a 2.72 ERA and was limiting opponents to a .203 batting average.
Vince Velasquez (1-0, 3.68 ERA): Velasquez looks rejuvenated since rejoining the Phillies’ rotation at the end of April. The right-hander has pitched to a 2.84 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .200 average in five starts since April 23.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Marlins: Starling Marte OF (Out), Lewis Brinson CF (Out), Tommy Eveld RP (Out), Jeff Brigham RP (Out).
Phillies: J.T. Realmuto C (Questionable), Didi Gregorius SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Vince Velasquez's last four home starts and 4-1 in his last five starts overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Phillies.
Moneyline pick
The Phillies took the opener of this NL East series 8-3 while the Marlins responded in Game 2 with a 3-1 victory, and the finale should be another tightly-contested affair.
Yes, Alcantara is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, surrendering eight runs on seven hits in just an inning and a third against the Dodgers, but he has been one of the most reliable starters for the Fish all season and his mix of pitches are hard to barrel up.
That should play well against what is an inconsistent Phillies lineup. They rank 17th in scoring and strike out a ton. For example, in their last six games, they have scored five or more three times and one or fewer three times. Alcantara also owns a 2.82 ERA in six career starts versus the Phillies.
While Velasquez has looked good in his return to the rotation, the problem is he’ll have to hand the ball off to one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Velasquez has also struggled against the Marlins recently, pitching to a 7.94 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2019.
We like the value with the Fish as underdogs in this one.
PREDICTION: Marlins (+105)
Over/Under pick
The total for this opened at 8 and the immediate thought was Under. We have already spoken about how we expect Alcantara to bounce back against an up-and-down Phillies lineup, but there is more to like about the Under in this one.
Even though Velasquez has a tough history against the Fish, he is pitching well enough to make them flounder in this one. Velasquez might be pitching better than he has at any point in his career for that matter, and faces a Marlins lineup that ranks 25th in scoring, plating just 3.99 runs per game and 26th in OPS. Bet this one to stay below the number.
PREDICTION: Under 8 (-110)
Marlins vs Phillies betting card
- Marlins (+105)
- Under 8 (-110)
Picks made on 5/20/2021 at 1:30 p.m. ET
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