MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, July 8

Wednesday's full MLB slate offers plenty of underdogs with legitimate upside.

After breaking down every matchup, I've narrowed the board down to my favorite MLB picks for July 8, targeting teams with the biggest pitching edges, strongest matchup advantages, and clearest paths to victory.

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MLB moneyline picks for July 8

Matchup	Pick
Blue Jays vs Giants	+106
Cubs vs Orioles	+115
Athletics vs Tigers	-144
Braves vs Pirates	+108
Mariners vs Marlins	+120
Yankees vs Rays	+117
Astros vs Nationals	-125
Royals vs Mets	+135
Phillies vs Reds	+125
Guardians vs Twins	-120
Red Sox vs White Sox	+106
Brewers vs Cardinals	-130
Angels vs Rangers	-144
Rockies vs Dodgers	+217
Diamondbacks vs Padres	-133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-8.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 8

Blue Jays vs Giants: Giants (+106)

Giants win probability: 48%

Should the Toronto Blue Jays really be favored just because Dylan Cease is on the bump?

Over their last 12 games, Toronto's offense owns a 46 wRC+, .234 wOBA, and .521 OPS. That's a lineup I have a hard time backing as a favorite.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants have posted a 116 wRC+, .330 wOBA, and .758 OPS over that same span. Logan Webb gets the ball, and despite a couple of shaky outings, I trust him to keep a frozen Toronto offense in check.

Cubs vs Orioles: Cubs (+115)

Cubs win probability: 46%

Back-to-back games where the hotter offense is the underdog.

Sure, Colin Rea is cat meat, but he's quietly put together three strong starts, posting a 1.76 ERA over that stretch. More importantly, this Baltimore Orioles offense hasn't exactly been lighting it up, owning an 82 wRC+, .294 wOBA, and .116 ISO over its last 12 games.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have been on an absolute heater, slashing their way to a 150 wRC+, .389 wOBA and .896 OPS over their last six games.

Cubs at plus money? Please and thank you.

Athletics vs Tigers: Tigers (-147)

Tigers win probability: 60%

If you read these every day, you know I'm not exactly a fan of the Detroit Tigers, but today, against Jeffrey Springs, I think they're in a great spot to break out.

Springs has been shelled recently, posting a 10.03 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, while allowing an 11.25% barrel rate to opposing hitters. I think this is a great spot for the Tigers to boom.

Braves vs Pirates: Braves (+108)

Braves win probability: 48%

I've always felt the Atlanta Braves are one of the deepest teams in baseball. Now that they're finally crawling out of their June funk, I think the market is starting to undervalue them.

Over their last six games, Atlanta has posted an .858 OPS and .236 ISO, while producing a hard-hit rate north of 41% as a team. The bats are finally starting to wake up.

I think there's plenty of value in backing the Braves as underdogs tonight.

Mariners vs Marlins: Marlins (+120)

Marlins win probability: 46%

I do not care that Tyler Phillips has been a tough watch in his recent starts. The Miami Marlins offense is absolutely scorching, while the Seattle Mariners are frozen at the plate.

Over their last 21 games, Seattle owns an 80 wRC+, .280 wOBA, .114 ISO, and .617 OPS. Meanwhile, Miami has been on another planet over its last six, posting a 192 wRC+, .446 wOBA, and 1.051 OPS.

I want the team seeing beach balls at the plate, especially at plus money.

Yankees vs Rays: Yankees (+117)

Yankees win probability: 46%

Fine, I'll bite. The New York Yankees are finally starting to generate consistent hard contact and a healthy amount of barrel rate over their last six games. I think their offense is slowly coming around.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays have cooled off, posting an 86 wRC+, .286 wOBA, and .646 OPS during that span. Give me the Yankees.

Astros vs Nationals: Nationals (-125)

Nationals win probability: 56%

Foster Griffin has been nails over his last five outings, proving the Washington Nationals are getting every penny's worth.

On the other side, Spencer Arrighetti has been showing off his spaghetti arm, posting a 7.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over his last five starts, while allowing a 19.29% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

With Washington swinging some of the hottest bats in baseball right now, I think laying the $1.25 is well worth it.

Royals vs Mets: Royals (+135)

Royals win probability: 42%

After last night's Pac-12 After Dark performance, I'd normally expect a quieter game the following day, but with Stephen Kolek and Christian Scott on the mound, I just want the underdog.

Neither offense has been particularly impressive, so I'll gladly take the value.

Phillies vs Reds: Phillies (+125)

Phillies win probability: 44%

You want to give us the Philadelphia Phillies as underdogs just because Chase Burns is on the mound for the Cincinnati Reds? Okay, thanks.

Cincinnati's offense has posted an 84 wRC+, .296 wOBA, and .136 ISO over its last 21 games. Meanwhile, the Phillies have been swinging the bats very well and continue to put together strong offensive performances.

I think this is a misprice. I do not care who is on the mound for the Phillies this evening; give me the value.

Guardians vs Twins: Twins (-120)

Twins win probability: 55%

With Slade Cecconi on the bump and the Cleveland Guardians ice cold at the plate over their last 21 games, I want the Minnesota Twins.

Even without Byron Buxton, this Minnesota offense still has plenty of firepower and is capable of putting together a strong performance.

Red Sox vs White Sox: Red Sox (+106)

Red Sox win probability: 48%

I am shocked, too, that I'm leaning toward the Boston Red Sox this evening, but southpaw Jake Bennett has been solid for Boston, while Davis Martin has shown some signs of regression in his recent outings. His WHIP is up, and his strikeout rate has taken a step back.

The Red Sox offense has been performing very well as of late, and I think there's value on the dog today.

Brewers vs Cardinals: Brewers (-130)

Brewers win probability: 56%

The winner of the Rafael Devers trade is on the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers this evening, while Michael McGreevy takes the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals, with an expected ERA hovering around 5.00 for the season.

Both offenses have been solid lately, but the pitching advantage belongs to Milwaukee in this matchup. I'll happily pay the $1.30 juice.

Angels vs Rangers: Rangers (-144)

Rangers win probability: 59%

A 47 wRC+, 26% strikeout rate, .519 OPS, and .088 ISO are just a few of the ugly numbers the Los Angeles Angels have posted over their last six games.

Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have been swinging a much better bat, posting a 114 wRC+, .333 wOBA, and .755 OPS over their last 12 games.

MacKenzie Gore has been excellent at home this season and should be able to hold down this Angels lineup. It has to be the Rangers for me.

Rockies vs Dodgers: Rockies (+217)

Rockies win probability: 32%

How could we not take the Colorado Rockies?

Roki Sasaki gets the ball tonight and has been getting crushed in his last three outings, posting an 8.53 ERA, 5.61 xERA and 1.74 WHIP during that span. Meanwhile, Ryan Feltner has quietly been excellent, owning a 2.59 ERA, 2.78 xERA and 1.06 WHIP over his last three starts.

Both offenses have been swinging the bats well, but the Rockies at more than 2/1? C'mon.

Diamondbacks vs Padres: Padres (-133)

Padres win probability: 57%

It's hard for me to even give the Arizona Diamondbacks a chance when they have been lifeless for over a month.

José Cabrera takes the mound for Arizona, carrying a 5.62 xERA on the season. Meanwhile, Michael King gets the ball for the San Diego Padres and has been lights out in his recent starts.

Give me the team that's actually hitting the ball: Padres.

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