All aboard for the full slate ahead!
My MLB moneyline predictions for tonight's slate include backing a lot of pricey favorites, which include the Philadelphia Phillies.
Before we dive in, be sure to check out all of our MLB picks on Tuesday, Sept. 1.
MLB moneyline picks for September 1
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Metsvs  Rays |
55% |
 Padresvs  Reds |
55% |
 Giantsvs  Pirates |
40% |
 Blue Jaysvs  Guardians |
62% |
 Bravesvs  Nationals |
38% |
 Marinersvs  Red Sox |
55% |
 Tigersvs  Twins |
54% |
 Marlinsvs  Royals |
50% |
 Brewersvs  Cubs |
46% |
 A'svs  Rangers |
66% |
 White Soxvs  Astros |
50% |
 Oriolesvs  Rockies |
42% |
 Yankeesvs  Angels |
36% |
 Philliesvs  Diamondbacks |
55% |
 Cardinalsvs  Dodgers |
36% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-1.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 1
Mets vs Rays: Rays
Rays win probability: 55%
Mets left-hander Sean Manaea has been getting lit up over his last five outings, allowing a 46% hard-hit rate, 17% barrel rate, and 5.29 xERA.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta has been improving since joining the Rays, posting a solid 3.57 ERA, 3.19 xERA and 0.79 WHIP over his last three starts.
The Mets’ offense has been pretty lifeless as of late, and with how bad Manaea has been, I expect the Rays’ bats to come to life this evening.
Padres vs Reds: Padres
Padres win probability: 55%
It feels odd writing Randy Vasquez has been solid enough to trust this evening, but he has. He owns just a 2.98 xERA over his last five starts while also limiting hard-hit balls and barrels during that stretch.
Reds southpaw Nick Lodolo, on the other hand, has been horrible over his last five starts, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.78 WHIP while allowing a 13% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Reds’ bats have come alive as of late, but they are still a very strikeout-heavy team. So, I’m taking the more trustworthy offense and the better arm at the moment.
Padres or nothing.
Giants vs Pirates: Giants
Giants win probability: 40%
Does Paul Skenes have better numbers over his last few starts? Yes. But the Pirates’ bats are ice cold, while the Giants are heating up at the dish.
Plus, when was the last time Skenes got run support from his offense in a start where he shoved? Never.
Take the dog.
Blue Jays vs Guardians: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 62%
Have the Blue Jays’ bats come alive over their last six games? Yes. However, when your starter owns a 9.35 ERA, a sub-2.00 WHIP and a near 18% walk rate over his last five starts, how can you trust that?
With Spencer Arrighetti on the mound for Toronto, it has to be the Guardians here.
Braves vs Nationals: Nationals
Nationals win probability: 38%
Both starters this evening have been struggling — with both posting xERAs over 4.40 in their last three starts — making the underdog a little more enticing, especially with the Nationals swinging a hot bat as of late.
Over its last six games, Washington owns a .783 OPS, .181 ISO and 120 wRC+. With how inconsistent the Braves have been, the dog is the more intriguing look here.
Mariners vs Red Sox: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 55%
Red Sox or nothing here.
With how poorly Bryan Woo pitches away from Seattle, the Red Sox should be able to take advantage of his flaws early and often.
For the full breakdown, check out my Mariners vs. Red Sox predictions.
Tigers vs Twins: Twins
Twins win probability: 54%
Twins left-hander Connor Prielipp has faced some speed bumps over his last few starts, but his last three outings have produced some strong underlying metrics pointing toward improvement — including a 3.88 xERA and a 2.04% barrel rate.
The Tigers have been so cold at the plate that this is a Twins-or-nothing spot. Over the last week, Detroit owns a 30 wRC+, a .088 ISO and a .462 OPS.
Read more about this matchup in our Tigers vs. Twins predictions.
Marlins vs Royals: Royals
Royals win probability: 50%
There are very few teams in baseball as hot as the Kansas City Royals, and the Marlins are not one of them.
To keep it simple, the Marlins have a wRC+ under 100 over their last 12 games, while the Royals have a wRC+ above 115 over their last 21 games.
Plus, Randy Dobnak has been extremely serviceable for Kansas City. Trust the hot bats against the Fighting Fish.
Brewers vs Cubs: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 46%
Coming off allowing nine home runs and losing 17-3, the Brewers are the lean here, relying only on the idea that the Cubs won’t be able to replicate that offensive production in back-to-back games.
Plus, Matthew Boyd owns a near 6.00 xERA over his last five starts, along with a 12.24% barrel rate.
Brewers are the lean, but find out more in our Brewers vs. Cubs predictions!
A's vs Rangers: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 66%
Even though MacKenzie Gore has been iffy at times with opponents making a ton of contact off him, the Rangers’ bats are red hot and hard to fade right now.
The city-less Athletics have been ice cold, while the Rangers own a .203 ISO, 10.7% barrel rate and 122 wRC+ over their last six games.
The Athletics have not been too great against southpaws this season, so expect Gore to have his way tonight.
White Sox vs Astros: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 50%
After a tough loss Monday evening, the White Sox should be able to bounce back against Ronel Blanco, who has been pretty brutal over his last five outings — posting a 7.71 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 11.88% walk rate. At home, it has been even worse, as he owns an 8.10 ERA.
White Sox right-hander Sean Burke has not been much better as of late. However, the way this White Sox team has bounced back after tough losses this season makes it hard to imagine them losing back-to-back games.
Neil Parker also took Chicago in his complete White Sox vs. Astros predictions!
Orioles vs Rockies: Rockies
Rockies win probability: 42%
After Colton Cowser robbed what could have been a walk-off home run from the Rockies last night, they should be ready to get that win back tonight against Kyle Bradish.
The Orioles right-hander has been getting lit up as of late, owning a 5.40 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.
On the other hand, despite Gabriel Hughes’ disgusting recent numbers, he has a 3.33 xERA on the season and doesn't give up much hard contact.
The dog is an interesting side here.
Yankees vs Angels: Angels
Angels win probability: 36%
Simply for the price and how well Grayson Rodriguez has been on the rubber, the Angels are worth the sprinkle.
The Los Angeles right-hander is allowing little to no hard-hit or barreled balls over his last five starts. On top of that, he owns a 2.45 xERA over his last five outings.
Neither offense has been overly impressive, so fading Yankees ace Gerrit Cole feels worth the dabble.
For a deeper dive into this matchup, read our Yankees vs. Angels predictions.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 55%
Paying slight juice for a lineup that crushes left-handed pitching, while having Jesus Luzardo on the mound, sounds like a price worth paying today.
Luzardo on the road this season has been lights out, posting a 2.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP while allowing little to no hard contact.
Against southpaws, the Phillies own a .334 wOBA, .751 OPS and 110 wRC+ this season. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, have just a 90 wRC+, 6.5% barrel rate and 34% hard-hit rate over their last six games.
Our Phillies vs. Diamondbacks predictions expand on why Philly is the play.
Cardinals vs Dodgers: Cardinals
Cardinals win probability: 36%
At this price, and given how lifeless the Dodgers have been, the Cardinals offer a ton of value.
Over their last 12 games, the Dodgers have a 33% hard-hit rate and 4% barrel rate. They are not hitting the ball with any quality contact, yet they are still being priced as if they are white hot.
Sure, it is the Monstars of L.A., but the Cardinals have Michael McGreevy on the mound, and he has not been allowing much hard contact while owning a 3.39 xERA over his last three starts.
The Cards are worth the sprinkle.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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