The Dodgers are a heavy favorite over the Phillies on Sunday afternoon, but it's deserved.
Find out why my MLB picks for every moneyline on May 31 are topped by Los Angeles, and why the Nationals could pull off an upset earlier in the day.
MLB moneyline picks for May 31
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Blue Jaysvs  Orioles |
-122 |
 Twinsvs  Pirates |
+133 |
 Padresvs  Nationals |
+113 |
 Red Soxvs  Guardians |
-104 |
 Angelsvs  Rays |
-170 |
 Bravesvs  Reds |
+122 |
 Marlinsvs  Mets |
+144 |
 Tigersvs  White Sox |
-122 |
 Brewersvs  Astros |
-163 |
 Royalsvs  Rangers |
-108 |
 Giantsvs  Rockies |
-110 |
 Yankeesvs  A's |
-133 |
 Diamondbacksvs  Mariners |
-127 |
 Philliesvs  Dodgers |
-194 |
 Cubsvs  Cardinals |
+104 |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for May 31
Blue Jays vs Orioles: Orioles (-122)
Orioles win probability: 55%
Kyle Bradish has quietly put together three quality starts in his last four appearances. He'll be backed by an Orioles lineup that's seventh in OPS since May 15.
No matter who the Blue Jays turn to to start this game, they'll be in trouble in Camden Yards. I'll back Baltimore to -140.
Twins vs Pirates: Twins (+133)
Twins win probability: 43%
With Zebby Matthews (2.37 ERA) and Braxton Ashcraft (2.75 ERA) both pitching well, and both lineups in the bottom third in OPS over the last two weeks, this game could come down to which bullpen outshines the other.
Minnesota's relief corps (3.08 ERA since May 15) gives the Twins the edge over Pittsburgh (4.26 ERA), so play Minny to +110.
Padres vs Nationals: Nationals (+113)
Nationals win probability: 47%
There's isn't much to like about Griffin Canning's form this year (7.54 ERA). Zack Littell counters, and his 2.19 ERA in May shines by comparison.
The Nats' bats are also doing much better over the last two weeks, ranking fourth while San Diego is 24th.
Playing Washington to +100.
Red Sox vs Guardians: Guardians (-104)
Guardians win probability: 51%
Tanner Bibee brings an ugly 0-7 record into this one, but the Guardians lineup hits lefties well (eighth in OPS), and the inconsistent Ranger Suarez comes to town today.
Cleveland's bullpen also holds the edge in xERA (eighth vs. 18th) over the last two weeks, so I'll back them to -120.
Angels vs Rays: Rays (-170)
Rays win probability: 63%
It's been a brutal month of May for Jack Kochanowicz (7.52 ERA), and the Angels bullpen has been a dumpster fire these last two weeks, ranking dead-last in xFIP.
Shane McClanahan owns a sparkling 1.33 ERA in May, and is backed by the Rays' 12th ranked bullpen by the same metric, so this is a tremendous mismatch. I'm willing to play this all the way to -210.
Braves vs Reds: Reds (+122)
Reds win probability: 45%
Spencer Strider has given up five home runs over his last two starts, and the Reds are fourth in longballs at home this year.
Nick Lodolo is fresh off his best start of the season (one ER over six innings vs. the Mets), so I'm buying low on him and Cincinnati. Take the Reds to +110.
Marlins vs Mets: Marlins (+144)
Marlins win probability: 41%
Both Janson Junk (7.00 ERA in May) and Nolan McLean (6.92 ERA) are in poor form, but the Marlins have the Mets beat in bullpen xFIP these last two weeks (sixth vs. 23rd), as well as OPS (11th vs. 22nd).
Back the Fish to keep New York in the NL East cellar to +125.
Tigers vs White Sox: White Sox (-122)
White Sox win probability: 55%
Keider Montero has failed to go six frames in three straight, while Sean Burke has had three short outings in his last four overall. That will expose two bullpens in the bottom third in xFIP over the last two weeks to these lineups.
However, the Tigers can't hit water if they fell out of a boat right now, ranking dead-last in OPS since May 15. Even with Munetaka Murakami on the shelf, I'll back the South Siders to -140.
Brewers vs Astros: Brewers (-163)
Brewers win probability: 62%
I refuse to believe Tatsuya Imai has suddenly "figured it out" for the Astros after tossing six scoreless innings as part of a no-hitter last Tuesday. His ERA is still a sky-high 6.17.
He can't hang with Jacob Misiorowski (1.83 ERA), so back the Brewers to -200.
Royals vs Rangers: Rangers (-108)
Rangers win probability: 52%
I keep waiting for Michael Wacha's 2.69 ERA to float up and greet his 3.96 xERA. Maybe the Rangers' ninth-ranked bats by OPS - despite being no-hit last Tuesday - will help that happen?
I'm willing to find out at these odds, and will play this to -120.
Giants vs Rockies: Rockies (-110)
Rockies win probability: 52%
It's been a rough month of May for Robbie Ray (7.11 ERA). Tanner Gordon has shown flashes of promise this year, and this is a light-hitting Giants lineup.
I'll take a swing on the Rockies to -120.
Yankees vs A's: Yankees (-133)
Yankees win probability: 57%
Jacob Lopez is a southpaw taking on a Yankees team that's tops in the majors in OPS vs. lefties in 2026, and is pitching in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly parks. This could get ugly.
New York up to -160 is the play.
Diamondbacks vs Mariners: Mariners (-127)
Mariners win probability: 56%
Merrill Kelly's high ERA figures to come down as the season progresses after some early blow-ups, but his bullpen may let him down today, as this unit is 25th in xFIP since May 15.
Early returns on 2026 Bryce Miller are positive, so I'm a buyer on Seattle to -140.
Phillies vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-194)
Dodgers win probability: 66%
It's been a rough rookie season for Andrew Painter (5.40 ERA), and things won't get easier vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a Dodger lineup that's tops in the majors in OPS over the last two weeks.
The Dodgers are playable to -220.
Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+104)
Cardinals win probability: 49%
Matthew Liberatore's strikeouts are on the rise in May, with 19 over his last two games alone, and the Cubs have fanned left and right over last two weeks with the fourth-most Ks.
Jordan Wicks and his 5.71 ERA don't inspire much confidence. Back the Cardinals to -120.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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