It was a hell of a weekend for the World Baseball Classic. Multiple walk-off home runs highlighted some really exciting baseball, and now we get maybe the best matchup of the pool stage as Mexico takes on the United States.
Both teams enter this pool game at 2-0, but the case can be made that Mexico has looked like the better team on the field at this point. My Mexico vs. USA predictions and World Baseball Classic best bets show why another slow start could cost the Americans on Monday, March 9.
Mexico vs USA prediction
Mexico vs USA best bet: Mexico +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
The United States is 2-0 with 23 runs scored, but somehow still looks shaky. They gave up early and late runs against Brazil, and were shut out by Great Britain for four innings.
Mexico is coming off a 16-0 six-inning “mercy rule” rout of Brazil. Led by Alejandro Kirk and Randy Arozarena, this is a big-league Mexican lineup.
USA has the edge with starting pitching. But coming off a short game, all of Mexico’s high-leverage bullpen arms, featuring three MLB closers — including Andrés Muñoz — will be available.
Mexico feels like a complete team. It'll keep this game close.
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Mexico vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)
Mexico +3.5
Under 11
While these teams have combined to score 47 runs in their four games so far during the WBC, I’m going to zag here. I’m expecting a close game, and that has me thinking Under this big number.
Paul Skenes is Paul Skenes. He can overmatch any big league lineup. And I don’t expect Mexico starter Manny Barreda to go more than once through the order with the arms Mexico has in its rested bullpen.
Alejandro Kirk star player prop
Alejandro Kirk best bet: 2+ hits + runs + RBI (-105 at DraftKings)
He may not be the biggest name in this game, but Alejandro Kirk is a star. He was among the MLB leaders in expected batting average and strikeout rate in 2025, something that plays well in a game with good pitching. He’s coming off a 2-for-3 night with a home run against Brazil.
Mexico vs USA opening odds
- Moneyline: Mexico +390 | USA -550
- Run line: Mexico +3.5 (-105) | USA -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 11 (-125) | Under 11 (+100)
How to watch Mexico vs USA and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, March 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Mexico starting pitcher | Manny Barreda |
| USA starting pitcher | Paul Skenes |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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